by Ben Perks
After topping the latest ESPN MVP poll, Denver Nuggets power forward Nikola Jokic has overtaken Joel Embiid to become the new NBA MVP favorite. Embiid had been top of the Las Vegas odds tables for several weeks but now sits in second at +122.
With just over a week left of the regular season, it looks like there are only two horses in the MVP race. But although Jokic is the frontrunner, could it be a good time to place action on Embiid?
Get betting insights and view the latest NBA MVP odds.
2022 NBA MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | -289 |
| Joel Embiid | +122 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +1000 |
| Devin Booker | +4200 |
| Luka Doncic | +6000 |
Jokic’s Path to MVP
As the Serbian has dragged the Nuggets into the playoffs with an injury-plagued team, NBA betting sites having him as the MVP favorite is unsurprising.
Last year’s MVP continues to put up historically great numbers, and although the Nuggets seemed destined for the Play-In Tournament, they now look safe in the top six with just a few games to go.
Jokic is the only player in the top 10 in scoring, rebounding, and assisting. What’s more, his EWA (Estimated Wins Added) is 25.8 – trouncing Embiid’s 21.1.
The recent odds update reflects the results of Tim Bontemps’ straw poll, which placed Jokic in the lead, and the fact that the Sixers have lost three in a row against the Suns, Bucks, and Pistons.
Although Embiid played well in these games, the Sixers’ losing streak doesn’t help his case. They have dropped to fourth in the East and are only one ahead of the Nuggets in the loss column.
Therefore, Philadelphia needs to get back to winning ways to help their main man lift the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
Top MVP Contenders
While many will still argue that Giannis Antetokounmpo’s playoff performance power could help him grab the MVP honors at the death, he’s a long-shot bet to overthrow Embiid and Jokic.
Embiid’s MVP bid has taken a hit due to his team’s recent record. But despite the Sixers’ recent poor run, they could still rise up the table in the Eastern Conference, which would act as a springboard for the Cameroonian to beat Jokic to MVP.
Philadelphia’s last four matchups (Hornets, Cavaliers, Pacers, and Raptors) also give Embiid a chance to win the fierce battle for the scoring title, making the MVP race still extremely close.
With a few winnable games coming up for Denver, Jokic will likely put up some more incredible numbers. But as a team’s success can make the difference for MVP voters, Denver needs to keep on winning.
If you’re thinking of backing Embiid right now, keep in mind what the Sixers will do when it comes to seeding – the Sixers might try to avoid a potential Nets matchup in the first round. Plus, will Embiid want to play in every game to win individual accolades or try and avoid picking up an injury before the playoffs?
Another point to consider is that Philly has already rested Embiid when facing Miami, so he could sit out more games. As the MVP race will go down to the wire, not spending enough time on the court at the tail end of the season could be a major deciding factor.
Recent MVP Winners
| Year | Player | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Nikola Jokić | Denver Nuggets |
| 2020 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2019 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2018 | James Harden | Houston Rockets |
| 2017 | Russell Westbrook | Oklahoma City Thunder |
| 2016 | Stephen Curry | Golden State Warriors |
| 2015 | Stephen Curry | Golden State Warriors |
| 2014 | Kevin Durant | Oklahoma City Thunder |
| 2013 | LeBron James | Miami Heat |
| 2012 | LeBron James | Miami Heat |
View the latest betting lines for upcoming NBA games.
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
