by Ben Perks
The Tampa Bay Lightning head to Colorado to start their NHL Stanley Cup defense against the Avalanche on Wednesday.
Vegas oddsmakers have the Avs as favorites to win Game 1 and the series. But as the Lightning has hit some red hot form and will be facing a side that is missing key players with a save percentage below .900 during the playoffs, have the oddsmakers underestimated Tampa Bay’s chances?
Get betting insights and the latest Vegas odds for Game 1 of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals.
NHL Stanley Cup Game 1 Betting Info
- When: Wednesday, June 15 at 8 p.m. ET
- Vegas oddsmakers have made the Avalanche moneyline favorites wo win Game 1
- The Lightning are +150 underdogs to lift the 2022 Stanley Cup at NHL betting sites
- Colorado completed a clean sweep against the Edmonton Oilers to win the Western Conference Finals
- Tampa Bay beat the New York Rangers 4-2 in the Eastern Conference series to reach the finals for the third year in a row
NHL Stanley Cup Betting Trends
Recent NHL betting trends show that 84% of spread bets have been placed on the Lightning at +1.5. On the moneyline, the Avs have seen 60% of the action.
The latest stats show that many NHL bettors are expecting goals in this series opener – 86% of the public has wagered on the Over (6).
Head-to-Head Record: Avalanche vs. Lightning
| Date | Home-Away | Moneyline | Puck Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/21/2022 | Tampa Bay 7 Colorado 1 | TB | TB | Over |
| 10/19/2019 | Tampa Bay 2 Colorado 6 | COL | COL | Over |
| 2/17/2020 | Colorado 3 Tampa Bay 4 (OT) | TB | TB | Over |
| 10/23/2021 | Tampa Bay 3 Colorado 4 (SO) | COL | COL | Over |
| 2/10/2022 | Colorado 3 Tampa Bay 2 | COL | TB | Under |
Game 1 Betting Insights
As both teams are on winning streaks (Colorado 5, Tampa Bay 4), expect Game 1 to go down to the wire.
Despite having a better expected goals percentage (xGoals%), Corsi, expected goal differential, high danger chances for percentage (HDCF%), and overall scoring chances for percentage (SCF%) than the Lightning, there are chinks in Colorado’s armor.
A major one being the absence of Nazem Kadri. The second-line center was having a career year prior to the injury finishing the regular season with 87 points and bagging 14 points in 13 playoff games.
…quality goalies make a difference in big games, and Tampa Bay has the best one in the league.
If that’s not a big enough blow, the Avs will likely hit the ice without starting goalie Darcy Kuemper on Wednesday. Admittedly, it didn’t cause the team problems when playing against Edmonton, as backup Pavel Francouz put on some solid performances – including a shutout.
Still, quality goalies make a difference in big games, and Tampa Bay has the best one in the league.
Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy is 11-0 in his last 11 games facing elimination. In those matchups, he has pulled off six shutouts and recorded a save percentage above .980.
The Bolts will need Vasilevkiey to be on top form against the Avalanche to keep the machine that is Cale Makar at bay.
Makar (1.08) has averaged more than a point per game during this series. The Norris Trophy favorite has bagged 53 points in bis previous 49 NHL playoff games – Bobby Orr (66) and Brian Leetch (65) are the only other defensemen to have scored more points in their first 50.
In Game 1 meetings, Colorado has opened all three previous rounds on home ice, outscoring the opposition 18-11. Yet Tampa Bay has lost two of its three Game 1 contests. In their two setbacks, they were outscored 11-2.
Another point to consider before betting on Game 1 is that Colorado beat the Lightning twice this season (3-2 and 4-3 in a shootout). But as the Lightning have a significant advantage between the sticks and will face a weakened Avs team, Tampa Bay could start the series with an upset against the odds.
Tampa Bay @ Colorado Game 1 Injury Report
Lightning forward Point hasn’t played since round one due to a leg injury. However, Bolts coach Jon Cooper expects Point to feature in this series – still, he’s doubtful for Game 1. Defenseman Brent Seabrook (shoulder) is also out.
The Avs are missing defenseman Samuel Girard (broken sternum) and Center Nazem Kadri (finger surgery). Other players that are a doubt are winger Andrew Cogliano (hand surgery), Defenseman Ryan Murray (broken hand), and Darcy Kuemper (upper-body injury).
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Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
