by Ben Perks
The Avalanche secured a thrilling Game 4 victory against the Oilers to reach the NHL Stanley Cup Final for the first time in over 20 years. As a result, Vegas oddsmakers have made them a -210 favorite to lift the trophy despite not knowing who they will face in the Finals.
The Eastern Conference Finals between the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning is proving to be a much tighter affair and is currently tied 2-2.
Get betting insights and the latest Vegas odds for the NHL Stanley Cup.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche were almost unstoppable during the regular season, ending with the second-best overall record in the NHL (56-19-7).
Beating the Oilers four times in a row means the Avs go into the NHL Stanley Cup Finals with two clean sweeps under their belts – the other team flattened by the Avalanche was the Nashville Predators.
Edmonton put up a fight in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals by charging to a 3-1 lead after 40 minutes. But it wasn’t enough to extend the series against a ruthless Avalanche side. Cale Makar was on fire against the Oilers, bagging one goal and four assists in the 5-6 victory.
Makar is the danger man for the Avs, leading the team with 22 points in 14 games. Nathan MacKinnon bagged his team-leading 11th goal in Game 4 to chalk up a total of 18 points. The team’s other stars, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog, are close behind with 17 apiece.
Before the season started, Vegas oddsmakers had the Avalanche clear favorites for the title and predicted that the finals series would feature Colorado and Tampa Bay.
Makar is the danger man for the Avs, leading the team with 22 points in 14 games.
Although they don’t represent great value of the three teams left, the Avalanche seem a solid pick. The Avs have a better expected goals percentage (xGoals%), Corsi, expected goal differential, high danger chances for percentage (HDCF%), and overall scoring chances for percentage (SCF%) than New York or Tampa Bay.
One thing to consider before placing action on Colorado is the team’s goalie situation, as Darcy Kuemper remains a doubt for the finals.
Yet although this could prove a chink in their armor, the Avs have coped well with backup Pavel Francouz. They’ve won all three games with the Czech in goal, and he even pulled off a shutout against the Oilers.
Tampa Bay Lightning
After losing the first two games of their series with New York, the Lightning have roared back to make it all square.
Andrei Vasilevskiy stamped his mark on Game 4 by stopping 34 of 35 shots to help secure victory for his team.
Andrei Vasilevskiy stamped his mark on Game 4 by stopping 34 of 35 shots to help secure victory for his team. Also, Ondrej Palat, who scored Sunday’s winner, proved his worth by scoring three points on Tuesday night. Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Maroon, and Steven Stamkos also chipped in to keep their team’s NHL Stanley Cup hopes alive and well.
Therefore, as Tampa still has the best goalie in the league and a stacked squad teeming with playoff pedigree, they are a tempting wagering option at +325.
New York Rangers
Igor Shesterkin struggled to stop 27 of 30 shots (.900), putting the Rangers in the hole. Still, as he’s been New York’s best player this season, don’t pay too much attention to this display.
In fact, the team’s shortcoming comes down to their overreliance on powerplay when on the road. This approach has led to all the goals conceded in their last two losses.
Because the Rangers love scoring even-strength goals at home, they will be glad to return to Madison Square Garden for Game 5. New York have shown great resolve this campaign by bouncing back from series opener losses against the Hurricanes and Penguins, and because they hold a 9-1 home record in the playoffs, they have a solid chance of turning the tie back in their favor.
Therefore, they will attract attention from NHL bettors looking for longer futures odds.
Recent Stanley Cup Winners
| Season | Stanley Cup Winners | Odds before playoffs | Runner Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay Lightning | +800 | Montreal Canadiens |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay Lightning | +650 | Dallas Stars |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis Blues | +1,250 | Boston Bruins |
| 2017-18 | Washington Capitals | +1225 | Vegas Golden Knights |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh Penguins | +770 | Nashville Predators |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh Penguins | +650 | San Jose Sharks |
| 2014-15 | Chicago Blackhawks | +800 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2013-14 | Los Angeles Kings | +1,400 | New York Rangers |
| 2012-13 | Chicago Blackhawks | +400 | Boston Bruins |
| 2011-12 | Los Angeles Kings | +2200 | New Jersey Devils |
| 2010-11 | Boston Bruins | +800 | Vancouver Canucks |
| 2009-10 | Chicago Blackhawks | +450 | Philadelphia Flyers |
View the latest betting lines for New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 5.
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
