On December 14, 2020, the electoral college officially announced the defeat of Donald Trump. The election campaign was acrimonious, divisive, created huge interest and the highest voter participation for more than a century (68%). Trump claimed a “stolen election”, even though litigation ruled out electoral fraud. Yet, this did not stop loyal supporters from protesting in the capitol. For over 200 years, there had been a peaceful transfer of power from the incumbent to the newly elected president. However, on January 6, 2021, the world was watching when a violent mob attacked the heart of US democracy. Nobody wanted to witness the violence and nobody could deny Trump was a powerful force to be reckoned with.
1. One of Their Own
The Trump camp and supporters were defiant and celebratory in defeat because they attracted 74,216,154 votes, the most ever received by an incumbent president. Although Trump is no longer in power, his brand of politics lives on in Trumpism. An in-your-face, no compromise, make America great again philosophy that has zero respect for political history, traditions, family dynasties, or the Republican Party hierarchy. Trump’s supporters see him as an anti-establishment figure who will raise the odds every time he takes to the election campaign trail.
2. The Economy
Trump supporters believe that it is the economic data from 2016 to 2019, until the pandemic, that proves he was an effective President. The unemployment rate went from 4.7 percent to 3.5 percent, the lowest figure for over 50 years. The US financial markets boomed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieving record highs. 56% of US families said they felt better off because average real wages increased by $6,000 to $68,703 and there has been a continuing fall in the poverty rate. Economists are divided, was the strengthening of the economic fundamentals due to Trump or a momentum that began during the Obama administration? Trump supporters see him as an experienced entrepreneur and would bet on him to safeguard the economy.
3. Law and Order
Trump declared: “I am your president of law and order,” and accused the Democratic Party of starving the police of funds and standing by as violent crime rates increased, making parts of inner-city America no-go areas. Trump supporters quote the FBI Crime reports that have shown a decline in violent crime of 5.1%, property crime 13.9%, and robbery rates 20.7%. Trump left office with racial tensions running high and armed protesters from opposing sides on the streets, but his supporters will always bet on his tough stance on crime.
4. America First
In 2020 Donald Trump signed a deal with the Taliban to withdraw US military troops from Afghanistan by 2021. There had always been public support to quit the country – some opinion polls showed 70% approval because of the human cost and waste of resources. The Trump supporters trust him to put the interests of America first. But since Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Kabul and the equipping of the Taliban with American military equipment that was left behind, Trump has turned to the offensive, “we should either go in with unequivocal military force and get it or at least bomb the hell out of it.” Trump’s supporters identify with his no-nonsense language, the deal to quit, and that he’s the bet on favorite to get the job done.
5. Climate change
“The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make the US manufacturing non-competitive” Trump once tweeted. His words were followed up with actions when he exited the Paris Climate Accord in 2017, claiming he was “doing what is fair for the US” in order to safeguard the jobs of people working in the “dirty industries” The Trump administration removed ecologically protections from sensitive areas and leased off 10.6 million acres of public lands to the fossil fuel industry. The result was that in 2019, for the first time in 67 years, the United States became a net energy exporter.
President Trump cares about winning, whatever the costs or issue. In 2016 Climate change was a marginal issue for the Republican voters, but with the frequency of climate extremes voters views are changing. A recent poll showed that 68% of Republicans now say climate change is important to their vote. That means it’s important to Donald Trump.
We await the start of the US Elections with anticipation, bettors are already watching the political events with interest, as online sportsbooks start taking bets on Donald Trump’s future.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
