Donald Trump’s political power may seem weak, but many believe that the ex-president could use recently raised funds to influence the US midterm elections in 2022. Although Trump has been impeached, put on trial in the Senate, is facing a full congressional inquiry into the attack on Capitol Hill, and has been banned from Twitter and Facebook for incitement to violence, he has been able to raise over $102 million in funds. The question is: how could the former president use this money to affect the odds for the next midterm elections?
Fund Raising
As Donald Trump is fighting off lawsuits and is banned from social media, many thought his political life and the ability to operate financially would be significantly restricted. However, he has used this situation to gain more support by claiming voter fraud, a stolen election, and un-American censorship. Using these claims, he appealed to loyal supporters to donate to his “election defense” and “unconstitutional censorship” funds.
As a result, between January 1 and June 30, 3.2 million contributors donated more than $82 million to his political committees – funding on an equivalent scale to both the official Republican National Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The sums involved for a political operation are unprecedented. According to the Federal Election Commission, Donald Trump now has $102 million at his disposal to wage war on his opponents.
The monies are channeled into numerous fundraising Political Action Committees that ex-administration officials and Trump loyalists operate. The principal committees are Save America, a Leadership PAC (political action committee), and the Make America Great Again PAC (his former election campaign fund).
How Could Trump Spend the Funds?
Trump could spend the money in the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections to try and take back control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. He could do this by directly funding opposition to the Democrats, who only have a five-seats lead in the House, and one seat in the Senate. He could also go after Republicans who he believes have been disloyal to him or the Republican cause. Donald Trump has warned that before the 2022 Midterms: “lots of primaries will be coming your way.” With his $102 million budget, he can fund candidates of his own choice to run against political enemies.
Senator Mitt Romney of Utah is one of his targets because he supports the Biden $550 billion infrastructure project. Trump believes that any compromise with Democrats will reflect poorly on the Republicans. Also, the Senator of Alaska Lisa Murkowski is also in Trump’s sights because she voted to convict the former president in the impeachment trials.
The Funding Rules
A Political Action Committee (PAC) is a financial structure governed by the Federal Election Commission to raise and distribute money to elect and defeat candidates. The strict rules allow the money to be spent on a candidate for general expenditure, such as travel, events, advisers and ad campaigns. Under no circumstances could Trump use the money to finance his own presidential campaign.
Trump Influential Without Social Media
During his term as President, Donald Trump changed the nature of communication between the White House and the population; gone were the traditional briefings and social media became mainstream. On almost a daily basis, he shared his innermost thoughts with his 46.7m followers on Twitter.
Feelings of anger and persecution were communicated to his supporters with brash and insulting tweets that often contained incorrect claims. He sited fake news, claiming that Hillary Clinton was “crooked“, and promised to “make America great again”. Nobody had previously seen a world leader use social media in such a manner.
Trump saw social media as an effective means to reach his supporters and as a tool to dictate to the news networks, as controversial tweets instantly became headlines around the world. For example, during the 2020 election, Trump posted conspiracy theories of voter fraud and claimed that the election had been rigged. These posts culminated in the Capitol Hill riots. After the riots, many demanded that social media should punish Trump and his supporters who were sharing these conspiracy theories and extremist content. As a result, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, and YouTube banned him from their platforms until at least January 2023, but these bans could last until after the 2024 election campaign.
Yet as mentioned before, Trump has used these bans to gain even more support. The former President has demanded an end to the “un-American” suppression of free speech. This plea convinced his supporters to fund a legal challenge.
With Donald Trump still very much engaged with his supporters and $102 million in funds to help him shape the Republican Party and eliminate dissenters, online sportsbooks are already seeing betting activity on the 2022 midterm elections.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
