Texas will be the first state to kick off the 2022 midterm elections. Early voting began on February 14 and will conclude on election day, March 1. In the two years since Texans last cast a ballot the political climate and legislature have changed. Redistricting has created new political districts, and new voting laws have been introduced. Donald Trump is using his political weight and has endorsed more primary hopefuls than in any other state. The Lone Star State as a whole has long voted Republican, but the state’s four most populous metropolitan areas (Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin) have trended Democratic over the past four years.
We look at the factors political bettors should consider when viewing primary candidates ahead of November’s midterm elections.
The Primaries
On March 1, 2022, voters will cast a ballot in the Texas primaries. They will choose 38 Republican and Democrat candidates for district-based congressional seats, legislative offices, the State Board of Education, and judicial seats. Statewide, they will select candidates for the governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, land commissioner, agriculture commissioner, comptroller, and one of three seats on the Railroad Commission.
Winners in primary elections in Texas are determined by a majority vote of more than 50%. If no candidate achieves this the top two candidates proceed to a runoff election on May 24.
Redistricting
As a result of population growth identified in the 2020 census, the state of Texas was granted two additional seats in the US House of Representatives. Although minority communities made up 95% of the growth, the Republican redistricting committee created both new seats with white voting majorities. Under the new maps the number of Hispanic-majority congressional districts would shrink from 8 to 7.
Other districts have been redrawn to pull in Democratic voters to concentrated areas, allowing the Republican vote in adjacent areas to strengthen.
New Voting
Following accusations of voter fraud by Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential elections, Republican lawmakers across 49 states initiated 425 bills to make voting more difficult for the Democrat’s base.
In Texas, both the state GOP Chairman Allen West and the Republican Governor Gregg Abbot declared that “election integrity” was a top priority in the run-up to the midterm elections. Bills have been introduced that would ban drive-thru voting and reduce early voting hours, restrict the number of voting machines allowed at polling centers, and prohibit local election officials from sending out mail-in ballot applications to all voters.
The Department of Justice has filed suits claiming the new laws violate the Voting Rights Act, and Democratic politicians have used delaying tactics to stall the implementation of the legislation.
As a result, Texas officials have struggled with the introduction of the laws because hurried timelines have made navigating stricter rules concerning voter registration and absentee ballot forms difficult.
In Travis County, home of state capital Austin, almost 30% of the absentee ballot applications were rejected because of problems.
These law changes could have a significant effect on the midterm election odds.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump has endorsed 20 candidates across the state of Texas. His focus has been on incumbent GOP politicians at all levels of government who have pushed his agenda. Trump is putting his political weight behind Attorney General Ken Paxton, who tried to overturn the “stolen” presidential election result in several states. Like Trump, Paxton is facing fraud and corruption investigations. A rival for the primary Eva Gusman, said “Ken Paxton is too distracted, he’s mired in scandal, he’s not doing a good job.” The primary is set to be a close race. But in a recent poll Paxton had the support of 48% of Republican voters.
Success for Trump’s endorsements in the Texas 2022 midterm elections will put in place politicians needed ahead of the next presidential contest in 2024 and affect his odds at the online sportsbooks.
Democratic Cities
For the past four years, the Democratic voter base has increased in the Texas suburbs. About 75% of the population lives in the metropolitan areas of Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. They have improved their margin by more than 5%, from 47% to 52%. The voter shift and changing demographic trends in the Texas suburbs have become a driving force for the Democrat gains.
Republican South
The Texas southern border region has shifted politically toward the Republican Party. 85% percent of the population in the 28 counties is Hispanic. In Starr County, there has been a 55% swing to the GOP. The Hispanic population dislikes the Democrats’ policies on climate change, policing, immigration, and customs enforcement.
The Democrats have sent Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to support Democratic congressional candidates Greg Casar and Jessica Cisneros. Many see her as the future of the party, a progressive politician of Hispanic origin with a national profile. It is hoped her visit will bolster the Democrat’s chances in South Texas.
Governor Election
The incumbent Governor Republican Greg Abbott, who is standing for his third term has polled 60% support of Republican voters in the GOP primary. Abbott has attracted more fundraising than his competitors, and is the strongest Republican primary candidate.
On the Democratic side, Beto O’Rourke dominates the primary race with 68% support amongst Democrat voters in a new poll.
In a potential November election race between Abbott and O’Rourke, 45% of voters polled would support the incumbent governor, while 38% would vote for the challenger.
Republicans have strengthened Texas as one of their strongholds by redistricting and legislation. There are indicators of evolving electoral trends with Democratic gains in the metropolitan areas. The state’s Hispanic population, which is now nearly as large as the white population is seeking better political representation.
The primary elections give political bettors an insight into Republican and Democratic candidates and their odds of success throughout 2022.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
