In the latest NYC Mayoral Polls Eric Adams holds onto his strong lead (61%), but Sliwa (25%) is narrowing the gap after a strong TV debate performance.
The challenges will be enormous for the contenders so we evaluate their odds of success.
Eric Adams, who defeated Andrew Yang the Democratic primary, will face the Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa in the mayoral election on 2 November. Eric Adams has solid support from organizations within the city, as well as strong financial backing, combine this with New York’s Democratic voting preferences, it puts him out in front at the moment. With the election fast approaching, plenty of voters still seem to be undecided, plus the ranked voting system could affect the result and upset the odds.
The Incumbent
The incumbent Mayor, Bill de Blasio was elected in 2013 promising the “beginning of an era of progressive Democratic administrations”. The Mayor has served two terms, but term limits prevent him from standing again. De Blasio’s early successes were instituting a universal pre-Kindergarten scheme and paid sick leave, but his tenure in City Hall was distracted by a Presidential bid, the pandemic, and the racial movement. He leaves office with his popularity at 37%, as many New Yorkers are now questioning if he brought about the reforms he had promised and who they might bet on to replace him.
The New York City Election Issues
Jobs
The pandemic hit New York City hard. Offices and shops closed, tourism halted, the hospitality industry shut up shop. Although in recovery mode, unemployment is at a historically high rate of 10.2%.
Housing
A visible sign of New York City’s inequalities is housing. The luxury apartment towers are visible from the crumbling neighborhoods, where tenants pay an unacceptably high share of their income on rents.
Crime and Policing
Crime during the pandemic increased across New York City, statistics released by the NYPD have shown an improvement but remain higher than a decade ago. The Black Lives Matter protests highlighted police brutality, which became an issue faced by many New Yorkers.
Education
New York City has over 1,800 schools that educate 1.1 million students, of whom 73.0 percent are economically disadvantaged. The education system now has to facilitate a way to catch up on the lost pandemic year.
Health
The uneven distribution of Health Care services in various NYC neighborhoods means access to general practitioners and qualified personnel can be difficult.
The Candidates
Eric Adams
- Party: Democrat
- Background: Brooklyn Borough President, former state senator, former NYPD captain
- Platform: Crime and public safety. Support for small businesses. Education reforms.
Curtis Sliwa
- Party: Republican
- Background: Founder of the Guardian Angels, radio host, political commentator
- Platform: Refunding of the NYPD. Property tax reform, Fiscal responsibility in city government
William Pepitone
- Party: Conservative
- Background: Bucks County borough. NYPD. Joint Council-School Board. Economic Development Committee.
- Platform: Crime and public safety. Rebuild Education. Support for business.
Catherine Rojas
- Party: Socialism & Lib Libertarian
- Background: Teacher and organizer
- Platform: Job creation. Small business relief. Defunding the police. Full rights for immigrants. Affordable housing
Stacey Prussman
- Party: Save Our City
- Background: Community activist, radio host, motivational speaker, entertainer
- Platform: Equitable Basic Income. Public Safety. Democratize Education. Animal Rights
Raja Michael Flores
- Party: Humanity United
- Background: Chief of the Division of Thoracic Surgery, Journal reviewer
- Platform: Affordable housing. Local public health system. Economy that works for everyone
Skiboky Stora
- Party: Out Lawbreaker
- Background: Campaigner for the Homeless
- Platform: Protection for the homeless
Quanda Francis
- Party: Empowerment
- Background: Accountant, Data Scientist, and the President of Sykes Capital Management
- Platform: K-12 education. Invest in the social impact projects. training and employment program.
The betting favorite is Democratic Eric Adams, who will go head to head with Republican, Curtis Sliwa. The broad spectrum of candidates reflects New York’s multicultural society. The odds clearly show there are obvious favorites but politics can sometimes be full of surprises. With the election taking place 2 November 2021 online sportsbooks are already seeing an increase in betting activity.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
