With the 2022 midterm elections a year away, the Republican Party is already putting pressure on the slim Democrat lead thanks to redrawn district maps. The redistricting process is already influencing five seats in favor of the Republicans in the House of Representatives. Discover how redistricting could affect the odds for the 2022 midterm elections.
2022 Midterm Elections: Five Seats To Gain Control
Many states have independent redistricting commissions to ensure a non-partisan redistribution of the census population. Some Republican-controlled states pursue aggressive partisan gerrymandering (the manipulation of electoral constituency boundaries to favor one party) which could sway the election result from six to 13 seats in the House of Representatives. With only five seats to regain control of the House, redistricting has become a powerful election weapon. And as America has witnessed, Trump, and the Republicans are willing to use all institutional tools to gain a political advantage.
This action could have a positive effect on the odds for Trump’s re-election at online sportsbooks.
Gerrymandering: Politicians Choose Their Voters
Gerrymandering is when boundaries are drawn with the intention of influencing election outcomes. It groups voters from separate areas together, to form a single voting block, which then has a greater chance of an election victory. North Carolina is a prime example of gerrymandering – the redrawn map gives the Republicans an advantage in 10 of the state’s 14 congressional districts, despite Trump winning the popular vote for president in 2020 by a margin of just 1.3%.
Redistricting: The Gains
The redrawn congressional maps indicate who might gain control of the House of Representatives and the election outcome even before any votes are cast. President Biden and his Democrat party hold a 221 seats lead over the Republican’s 213. But in the 12 states that have redrawn the maps so far, the Republicans have gerrymandered seats in Iowa, North Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin, and Montana. Proposed redrawn maps in Ohio, Georgia, and Florida would give Republicans control over more congressional seats. The chairman of House Republicans’ campaign committee, Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota said, “Our incumbents actually are getting stronger districts.” as state legislators in many places move aggressively to cement their partisan dominance.
Redistricting: A Political Tool
Redistricting happens across the states every ten years following a population census. The U.S. House of Representatives is elected by voters who live in districts that combine to form states. The smaller states contain a single district, but most are made up of multiple districts. Each district is required to be approximately the same population size. If an imbalance of population is discovered during a census, boundaries have to be adjusted. Redistricting will continue throughout 2021 and into the spring of 2022, ahead of the primary contests for next year’s midterm elections.
Democrats believe the abuse of redistricting by the Republicans is because they are afraid of competitive elections. Some voters believe that redistricting, combined with a decline in the number of swing states, means that they have been relegated to the role of spectator in the election process. For Trump, and the Republican Party, who have the power to redraw 187 districts compared to the Democrats 75, it is an opportunity to shape the political landscape and leave nothing to chance on the 2022 election campaign trail.
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Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
