When Biden took control of the White House in January 2020, his approval rating stood at 53%. After eleven months in power and a series of battles and blunders, the president’s popularity has dipped to 42%. We examine why support is declining and his odds for success or failure in the 2022 and 2024 elections.
The Honeymoon Period
The honeymoon period for Joe Biden is well and truly over. His decline in popularity has followed a similar pattern to past Presidents, who start with high approval ratings because they’re winners and hopes for the future are positive. For many Americans, Biden’s defeat of Trump was a momentous achievement, and whatever followed would never match the euphoric start to his presidency.
Instability and Chaos
One of Biden’s campaign promises was a massive social-spending program to restart the economy after the pandemic. Unified democratic support was needed to approve the program, but senators have battled against each other for months to finalize the details. This infighting is deeply unpleasant for voters who would benefit from the ambitious programs. It has also stalled priorities such as police reforms, voting rights and highlighted the president’s vulnerable position. A Democratic pollster Peter Hart commented, “What people voted for was (sic) stability and calm, and what they got was (sic) instability and chaos.”
Withdrawal from Afghanistan
70% of the American population agreed with Biden’s plan to withdraw the troops from Afghanistan. However, they disagreed with the chaos that followed. As much as the president tried to explain that the messy departure was under control, the chaotic scenes captured by journalists sent out a negative message. Trump called it “the single greatest humiliation in our history” and called for Biden to quit. If the current president’s rivals continue to use his mismanagement of Afghanistan against him, it could affect his odds of winning the next US election.
Masks and Freedom To Choose
Following official guidance, Biden reinforced mask wearing as one of the weapons against Covid-19. This was in stark contrast to Donald Trump, who used masks as a symbol of political affiliation. Now it is educational establishments that are divided over masks. Republican governor Ron DeSantis banned his state’s schools from requiring students to wear masks. He said, “This should be something that a parent is ultimately making the decision on. We’re going to do whatever we can to vindicate the rights of parents.”
It seems that many Americans, including some Democrats, are reluctant to accept the government telling them what to do. So with confidence in Biden waning, voters doubt whether it is he or the Republicans that are best placed to protect their freedoms and constitutional rights.
Economic Inflation = Approval Deflation
The American workforce is better off than they have been, and employment numbers are rising quickly after the lockdown. Yet voter opinion of Biden’s handling of the economy remains negative. While many workers’ wages have grown at the fastest pace in four decades, inflation is soaring and threatening to completely negate gains. Biden’s credibility is being questioned because he was warned that his trillion-dollar stimulus package would be inflationary. The president claims that the inflation spike will be short-lived, but with the midterms looming, does he have the time to prove others wrong?
Poor Ratings = Poor Results
When asked about the election for the Governor of Virginia, Joe Biden responded, “We’re going to win, I think we’re going to win in Virginia.” But despite joining the campaign rallies to support the Democrat candidate Terry McAuliffe, the president’s confidence was misplaced. The surprise victory for the Republicans was a bitter blow for Biden because Donald Trump lost in Virginia by a margin of 10 percentage points in last year’s presidential election. The defeat was a warning signal to the current president. The question now is can Biden lead members of the House and Senate into the midterms with confidence?
No Trump = No Distraction
When the 2020 election took place, many Americans voted to remove Trump, not elect Joe Biden. Trump was a divisive figure, and his daily rants on social media became world news. During the first few months of Biden’s term in office, the media and the electorate were distracted by Trump’s claims of a stolen election and the capitol riots. Faced with mounting criticism from all sides, Trump retreated, and attention turned to Biden. Trump was an anti-establishment figure who was very effective at engaging his supporters. Biden does not have the same charisma. However, he is widely experienced in the corridors of power and diplomacy. He wants his policies to be the main focus of attention. Still, with the difficulties and blunders in executing policies, many voters are annoyed that the party hasn’t moved fast enough in implementing campaign promises.
View the latest odds for Biden’s re-election in 2024
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
