The support for President Biden and his administration are in decline; bettors are watching the politics odds with interest as the May approval rating of 54.7%, has now dropped to 43%, with perceived issues regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration, the economy and highlighted by the botched exit from Afghanistan. There is already increased bettor activity on the online sportsbooks, as the dramatic reversal in support for the Democratic Party, could mean they are on course to lose control of the House and the Senate in the 2022 elections and if Biden follows his current path, he will join Trump, as a one-term president.
The COVID-19 pandemic
When Biden first took office, his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic was widely praised, with an organized response, that followed the science and was openly communicated to the population. On June 2nd Biden promised a “summer of freedom”, which turned out to be a premature statement, damaging public trust, as we now see the national average of weekly cases higher (160,000) than the peak of last summer (41,000).
Immigration
There is a humanitarian crisis on the southern borders, with record numbers of migrants being stopped by the U.S. authorities. The levels are now at a 20 year high, with over 180,000 people trying to cross in May. The influx may be the result of the halt to the construction of the border wall and certain immigration laws being repealed. But for those in detention centres, COVID issues have made the administration abandon its promise of fair and humane treatment for families seeking safety.
Afghanistan
It’s Biden’s ‘forever war’ that may well haunt the Democratic Party. Although there was 70% general public support to quit Afghanistan, the manner in which the military were withdrawn and the consequent loss of 181 lives, including 11 U.S. troops has been badly handled. The globe has watched on as The United States of America’s reputation as a force of influence and military competence has suffered. But does Biden now admit defeat, walk away and use diplomacy to heal the wounds of a 20 year long battle, or will the Taliban’s return to power and the associated extremist views limit his options and prolong the conflict?
The Costs
The question now is what will be the cost of Biden’s initiatives? Voter discontentment with the President might be reflected in the mid terms and with the Republicans needing to pick up five seats to win back the House and one seat to turn the Senate, the GOP is feeling increasingly bullish. Biden still has time to turn his fortunes around as the date for the next midterm elections is November 2022. The political landscape could look completely different by then, the pandemic could be at an end, the economy could be a booming, there could be geopolitical stability and popular support may return and be reflexed in the politics odds offered to bettors.
We await the start of the US Elections with anticipation, bettors are already watching the political events with interest, as online sportsbooks start taking bets on the midterms and Biden’s future.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
