by Ben Perks
After months of build-up, March Madness starts today with its First Four games. Gonzaga is unsurprisingly the opening favorite to win this year’s NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament for the second year in a row. Get the lowdown on top contenders and view the latest March Madness odds for all teams.
Will Gonzaga Make Up for Last Year?
Top betting sites such as Bovada have priced the Zags at +300 to win the 2022 March Madness tourney. At the same time last year, the No. 1 seeds were +200 favorites to win the competition. It seemed that Vegas oddsmakers had predicted right when the Bulldogs took to the court in the NCAA Tournament Championship game. However, they lost the final 70-86 to the Baylor Bears. Although the Bulldogs have never won a National Championship, online sportsbooks think this will be their year.
Gonzaga marched to victory in 19 of the last 20 games, losing only at #17 Saint Mary’s on the final day of the regular season. Yet the Bulldogs got revenge in the WCC Tournament final by dismantling the Gaels 82-69. The victory meant that the Zags secured their eighth conference title in nine years. After picking apart the nation’s 13th best defense by shooting 58% from the field, bookmakers were left with little choice but to make them March Madness favorites.
The Washington-based team leads the country in points per game (87.8), average score margin (+22.5), and field goal percentage (52.7%). What’s more, they occupy third for assists per game (18.2) and total rebounding.
The Zags’ offense is roaring and highly tricky to stop, so betting against them is hard to justify – yet it was a similar story in 2021. Therefore, seeing how they cope mentally with adversity in their upcoming games will give more insights into their mettle this year.
Stats for Futures Bets
If you’re thinking of placing a futures prop bet, keep in mind that Chet Holmgren is one of five Bulldogs to average double figures, and the leader is Drew Timme, with an average of 17.5 points. Although few doubt the offensive quality of this team, many overlook its defense. Gonzaga is in the top-seven in defensive efficiency per game according to KenPom. Also, be aware that the team occupies first in defensive rebounds, second in opponent effective field goal percentage (43.2%), fifth in blocks (5.9), and 13th in opponent assists (10.0) per game – these stats will give bettors plenty of food for thought.
March Madness Contenders
If you want bigger potential returns, these top contenders provide decent betting value. But as the odds show, they aren’t the most sensible wagering options at this point in time.
UCLA Bruins (+1800)
After succumbing to defeat against Arizona, USC, and Arizona State in the last weeks of the regular season, UCLA dropped from No. 3 to No. 11. But despite losing to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, they pulled off some impressive victories against USC and Colorado in the tourney. Moreover, the Bruins have a nice mix of quality and experience in their ranks. As a result, they are a tempting bet at +1800.
Houston Cougars (+2800)
As the Cougars are one of the top teams in the country, they deserve to be in the conversation. Houston finished the regular season as the No. 15 team but is fifth in adjusted efficiency, 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, the Cougars are one of only two teams that rank in the top 10 in these three categories (the other is Gonzaga). However, keep in mind that they haven’t beaten many quality opponents this season – their games against ranked teams Wisconsin and Alabama ended in defeat.
Kansas (+850)
Betting on Kansas to win this year’s NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament is the most sensible option on this list of other contenders. This No. 1 seed has a fairly easy start to this tourney, as No. 5 Iowa is arguably the only difficult opponent on the way to the Elite Eight. Although facing Auburn in the Elite Eight would be a challenging game, Kansas has the sixth-best offensive efficiency rating in the nation. Admittedly, this team has its fair share of weaknesses. For instance, the Jayhawks are pretty poor at three-point shooting, and Dajuan Harris has only scored double-digits in six games.
Nevertheless, they managed a Big 12 title win over Texas Tech, which is the best defensive team in the nation. Also, as the Jayhawks wouldn’t have to play Gonzaga, Baylor, Duke, or Kentucky until the NCAA Championship game, they have a decent chance of picking up some momentum in this tourney.
View the latest betting lines for upcoming March Madness games.
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
