by Darren Moore
Paulo “The Eraser” Costa (13-1-0) will take on Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori (17-4-1) in a middleweight bout that’s the main event at UFC Fight Night 196 (aka UFC Vegas 41) at the at UFC Apex facility in Enterprise, Nevada on Saturday night.
Vettori v Costa Betting Odds
There’s plenty at stake in this fight, which could potentially be a UFC middleweight title-eliminator between the former title challengers for another shot at the belt.
The Fight Result betting lines sees Vettori the marginal favorite according to available UFC odds on offer at the US sportsbook, Bovada, at –155. This means you would need to bet $155 on Vettori to win $100.
Those who wish to back the underdog Costa for the win, can do so at +130. A $100 bet on Costa would return $230.
Marvin Vettori Odds
The 28-year-old Italian Vettori is a former Venator FC welterweight champion and he will be making his 12th Octagon appearance when he comes up against Costa. Vettori has only recorded two KOs in his career to date, but has claimed nine submission wins in total.
Prior to his defeat to Adesanya, Vettori had been on a five-fight winning streak, which included victories over Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Karl Roberson, and Cezar Ferreira. Five of Vettori’s last six wins have come by decision results. Before that run of wins, Vettori had previously lost to Adesanya via a split decision back in 2018.
Paulo Costa Odds
The 30-year-old Brazilian Costa last fought back in September 2020, when he went down to a 2nd round TKO against champion Israel Adesanya. Costa is known as a knockout specialist, with 11 of his 13 career victories to date coming via way of KO.
Before his loss to Adesanya, Costa had started his UFC career with a five-fight winning streak that saw him defeat Gareth McClellan, Oluwale Bamgbose, former welterweight champion, Johny Hendricks, Uriah Hall, and upcoming Bellator MMA debutante, Yoel Romero. That run of wins was enough to earn “The Eraser” a title shot against Adesanya.
Fighter Stats
Costa’s background is in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, although he does mix it up and is a force on his feet due to his immense punching power and body kicks. Vettori also lost his last bout in a title fight to Adesanya, going down via a unanimous decision in June this year.
Vettori is probably a better all-around technical fighter than Costa, with his combination of high-pressure striking, coupled with his superior wrestling and grappling skills. “The Italian Dream” is also renowned for his granite chin, which will be useful if he faces the expected early onslaught from Costa.
Vettori also has a better cardio than Costa, so the longer the fight goes, the more it should favor the Italian, particularly given the output from Costa and his size. If Vettori can contain Costa’s power in the early exchanges, Vettori could be capable of getting on top in the fight with his grappling ability and taking this one to the judges.
Grant Dawson v Ricky Glenn
Also on the UFC Vegas 41 card, Grant Dawson is a strong -350 favorite to keep his unblemished UFC record when he faces Ricky Glenn in the Lightweight co-main event.
* UFC Vegas 41 odds were correct at the time of writing and are always subject to changes.
Darren lives & breathes sports betting and is always sniffing out his next value bet. His favourite sports to bet on are the NFL, horse racing and UFC but he will bet on anything if he thinks the odds are favourable.
