J.D. Vance, the face of the American new right, won Trump’s backing and the Ohio Republican US Senate midterm primary. His Trumpian campaign targeted Biden’s failure on immigration and the promotion of the extreme right ”great replacement” conspiracy theory.
A theory that is gaining momentum, attracting many voters, and trending on mainstream US media. But its momentum has a dark side that has radicalized individuals with disastrous effects.
We offer political bettors an insight into J. D. Vance and the ”great replacement” conspiracy theory.
J. D. Vance
If elected to the US Senate in November J. D. Vance would be one of the most controversial members with a Trump-style “America First” political program. The 37 year old would attack Democrats by accusing them of stealing the 2020 presidential election and prioritizing the war in Ukraine over American issues. Also, he would likely fuel the promotion of the “great replacement” conspiracy theory to turn voters against the opposition.
Vance claimed with the assistance of the “great replacement” the Democrats were plotting to let in 15 million additional immigrants because they were confident that 70% would vote Democrat. He said, “So you’re talking about a shift in the democratic makeup of this country that would mean we never win, meaning Republicans would never win a national election in this country ever again.”
…Republicans would never win a national election in this country ever again.
Michael Beyer, a spokesperson for the Ohio Democratic Party, responded by saying, “J.D. Vance will do or say anything to get elected and does not care about the risks of promoting deadly fringe racist conspiracy theories. Vance’s statements are disqualifying and show he is unfit to serve in the United States Senate,”
The Great Replacement Theory
The “great replacement” conspiracy theory claims the Democrats are bringing nonwhites into the US to replace white American voters to achieve political dominance.
Supporters of anti-immigration and white supremacists believe that this influx of immigrants – people of color more specifically – will lead to the extinction of the white race.
During the Trump presidency, hard-line immigration rhetoric became the norm as he described migrants crossing the Mexico border as part of a plot to “subvert and destroy” our “civilization”.
President Joe Biden called white supremacy a “poison” and condemned those who spread the “great replacement theory.”
Great Replacement – The Stats
According to a recent Yahoo poll, 60% of Trump voters agree with the “great replacement” theory.
61% of Trump supporters and 16% of Biden supporters believe a group of people in this country are trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants and people of color who share their political views.
73% of Trump supporters, and 16% of Biden supporters believe there is anti-white discrimination.
69% of Trump voters, and 30% of Biden voters are concerned that US-born citizens are losing economic, political, and cultural influence in the country to immigrants.
The poll shows that overwhelming support for the notion of discrimination against white people comes from Republicans. Political bettors should note that J.D. Vance could use the issue to attract some swing Democrat voters, although it’s far too controversial for the vast majority.
The Buffalo Shooting
The dangerous consequences of the white nationalist theory were witnessed in Buffalo, New York’s second-largest city. On May 14, 18-year-old Payton Gendron, who describes himself as a white supremacist, shot dead ten people – all of them black.
Before the racial attack, Gendron produced a video and a 180-page document filled with hateful rants about race and ties to the “great replacement” theory. He then traveled 200 miles with an AR-15-style assault rifle to target shoppers and employees of a Tops grocery store in a predominantly black neighborhood. The authorities have charged Gendron with domestic terrorism because of the race and color of the victims.
The supermarket shooter posted online that the US decrease in white birth rates equated to a genocide. He wanted his actions to radicalize others and called on followers to join him in mounting similar attacks.
The murderous attack was live-streamed but removed less than two minutes after the violence began – but not before it was duplicated and shared on other streaming sites.
The Media
New York Attorney General Letitia James is investigating whether social media companies enabled the attack by allowing it to be streamed, promoted, and planned over their platforms. She said, “the fact that an individual can post detailed plans to commit such an act of hate without consequence, and then stream it for the world to see is bone-chilling and unfathomable.”
…the fact that an individual can post…and then stream it for the world to see is bone-chilling and unfathomable.
However, following Trump’s ban from Twitter, media platforms have to perform a delicate balancing act between allowing free speech and combating hate content. J.D. Vance’s anti-immigration rhetoric can be viewed in forums across the internet and on US mainstream media.
The “great replacement” conspiracy theory has been endorsed by Fox News host Tucker Carlson. The concept has aired to the show’s 4 million nightly viewers in more than 400 of its episodes. Vance, who is a regular guest, warned the audience of an immigrant “invasion,” and that Democrats “have decided that they can’t win reelection in 2022 unless they bring a large number of new voters to replace the voters that are already here.”
For those wagering on the Ohio midterm Senate election, this mainstream exposure has popularized the theory that white Americans are being discriminated against and potentially made the issue a vote winner for Vance.
Tim Ryan – The Democrat Candidate
Vance will face Tim Ryan in the general election, who overwhelmingly won the primary with 69.7% of the vote. Polls put the US senate candidates neck and neck – Vance at 41.6%, and Ryan closely behind at 39.4%.
Given the Republican hard-line on immigration, Tim Ryan, an experienced Democrat legislator, might be able to convince swing, moderate, black, and hispanic voters to turn out in numbers to support him on the issue.
However, with Biden’s unpopularity, Vice President Kamala Harris’ inability to pass immigration reforms through Congress, and Ohioans facing economic problems, immigration may not be the top issue for most Ohioan voters.
Political bettors should consider that although Ohio has shifted right, Vance’s dangerous nationalist conspiracy theories could swing enough voters to the left to give Ryan and Democratic values a seat in the Senate.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
