by Ben Perks
Matthew Stafford’s masterclass performance for the LA Rams on Sunday has led sportsbooks to cut his odds of winning the NFL Most Valuable Player Award. The quarterback passed for 343 yards and got four touchdown passes in the 34-24 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Despite Kansas City losing against the La Chargers, the Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes stays the second favorite to take home the award. Whereas Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen and Buccaneers’ quarterback Tom Brady are joint third favorites. Get the latest odds for the top ten favorites to win the 2021/22 MVP award.
MVP Odds 2021
Odds courtesy of BetUS.*
- 1. Matthew Stafford +600
- 2. Patrick Mahomes +700
- 3/4. Josh Allen +800
- 3/4. Tom Brady +800
- 5. Kyler Murray +900
- 6. Aaron Rodgers +1000
- 7. Dak Prescott +1200
- 8. Lamar Jackson +1400
- 9. Russell Wilson +1800
- 10. Derek Carr +2500
*All MVP odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Favorites To Win the NFL MVP
Matthew Stafford +600
Matthew Stafford continued his excellent form over the weekend, putting up 343 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs to lead his side to their third win in a row. Matthew Stafford never won MVP in his 12 years with the Detroit Lions. However, since joining the Rams, the 33-year-old has found a new lease of life. He’s thrown the fifth-most yards and executed the second-most touchdown passes in the NFL this season.
Although still early in the season, Stafford looks the most likely to take home the trophy based on the way he’s played up to this point. In his last three games, he has nine touchdown passes, one interception, and is averaging 314 yards per game. In fact, Stafford has hit career-highs in every passing category. His averages are outstanding: completion percentage of 70.2, 10 yards per attempt, 14.3 yards per completion, and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9-to-1. The question is: can he keep it up?
Patrick Mahomes +700
Patrick Mahomes was a sensation last season when he led the Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl LV. Although they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, no one can doubt that Mahomes was the Chiefs’ main man that season. The quarterback got the second-most passing yards in the league(4740 ) and threw the third-highest total of touchdowns (38).
Mahomes started the new season well by managing 337 passing yards, throwing 27 completed passes and three touchdowns in the Week 1 win against the Browns. A Week 2 loss and below-par individual performance against the Baltimore Ravens halted his rise in the top ten of MVP favorites. However, in his last game, Mahomes managed 260 yards and three touchdowns to cut his odds. Yet despite playing well, it wasn’t enough to defeat the Chargers. The Chiefs ideally need to get back to winning ways for Mahomes to win MVP for the second time in his career.
Josh Allen +800
Josh Allen has been exceptional for the Buffalo Bills. Since being drafted in 2018, the 24-year-old has managed an impressive total of just under 10,000 passing yards for the Bills. His performances helped the Bills reach the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Even though they lost against the Chiefs, it was an impressive feat just to get the chance to line up against the Chiefs.
Allen’s main strength is his passing accuracy that cuts opposition defenses wide open. He had the fourth-most completed passes in the league last year. In Week 2, he threw two touchdowns and a fairly moderate 179 yards as the Bills destroyed the Miami Dolphins 35-0. Against Washington in Week 3, he managed 358 yards and four touchdowns to see his side over the line.
Tom Brady +800
Having already won the award on three different occasions, Tom Brady definitely has the necessary experience and quality to win it for the fourth time in his career. Even at 43, Brady showed last year that he’s still a phenomenon when he managed the third-highest passing yards total (4633) and the second-most touchdowns thrown (40).
Last season, he led his side to a Super Bowl win over the Chiefs to claim their first championship in almost two decades. During the game, Brady threw three touchdowns and 201 yards.
His passing records are unbelievable: he’s managed at least 3500 passing yards in every season but one since 2002. Brady threw 379 yards and four touchdowns against the Cowboys in Week 1 before unloading on the Falcons to get five TDs from 276 yards thrown. However, his 432 yards and one touchdown weren’t enough to prevent the Bucs from losing to the Rams in Week 3. Despite the defeat, Brady remains the joint third favorite to win the NFL MVP award.
Some bettors will be kicking themselves for not wagering on him when he was at +1000 at the start of this year’s campaign with most online sportsbooks.
Kyler Murray +900
Since his move to the Arizona Cardinals in 2019, 23-year-old Kyler Murray has been one of the most influential top 20 quarterbacks in the league. Murray managed 3700 passing yards in the last two seasons with Arizona. This is only his third season in the NFL after his college football displays for Oklahoma led to him being first overall in the 2019 NFL Draft.
After throwing four touchdowns, completing 21 passes, and managing 289 passing yards in Arizona’s surprise win over the Titans, Murray has shown that he has the pedigree to win this year’s MVP. But it looks like he needs a helping hand from his teammates. As Rodgers, Mahomes, and Tom Brady have shown in the past, you’re more likely to win the award when fellow team members play well.
Murray carried on his fine form with three TDs and 400 yards thrown in the narrow win over the Vikings (35-34) in Week 2. Then, he saw his odds drop again after he put up 28 passes and 316 passing yards against the Jaguars to give Arizona three wins in a row.
Check out the latest odds for NFL Week 4 matchups
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
