Beating the closing line consistently is a positive indicator of your betting skill and the value of your betting
Closing Line Value (CLV) in sports betting refers to the value of the odds at the time the betting market closes, just before the start of the event. It’s considered the most efficient line, reflecting all the information available up until the event starts, including predictions, public betting patterns, and any other relevant factors.
Why is CLV Important?
- Indicator of Bet Quality: CLV is a crucial metric for professional bettors and serious sports bettors. If you consistently beat the closing line, it means you’re often getting better odds than the final line, which suggests that you’re identifying value that the market hasn’t fully absorbed.
- Long-Term Profitability: Over time, consistently beating the closing line typically correlates with long-term profitability. This is because it indicates that you’re able to identify and exploit inefficiencies in the betting market before they correct themselves.
- Measure of Skill: CLV is a measure of a bettor’s skill in predicting market movements and finding value. It’s less about whether a particular bet wins or loses and more about whether you’re getting better odds than most of the market.
Example of CLV
Suppose you bet on a basketball game. You back Team A to win at odds of +150. As the game approaches, more information becomes available (e.g., player injuries, weather conditions, betting trends), and the odds shift. By the time the market closes, the odds for Team A to win have moved to +120.
Here’s how to evaluate the CLV:
- Your Bet: Odds of +150.
- Closing Line: Odds of +120.
In this scenario, you got better odds (+150) compared to the closing line (+120). This means you’ve beaten the closing line, which is a positive indicator of your betting skill and the value of your bet.
If you consistently find yourself betting at odds that are better than the closing line, it suggests you’re making strong, value-driven betting decisions. However, it’s important to note that a positive CLV doesn’t guarantee a winning bet; it simply means you placed your bet at a value higher than what was available at the market close.
Tom covers UFC, NFL and MLB for Vegas-odds.com. When he's not writing about sports, he's usually playing poker or betting on the spread. Contributor at GamblingIndustryNews.com and PokerIndustryNews.com
