Betting Psychology: Sharps Vs. Squares

by Darren Moore April 5th 2020, 10:33 PST

Are you a lemon, a faulty and defective mug, or are you a shrewd sharp brainiac who not only sees all the angles you can exploit them? Make no mistake betting psychology has a direct impact on your success or failure as a gambler.

Squares in betting parlance come in many shapes and sizes and the bigger your mug-bet activities the more you are going to lose in the long run. The number one downfall of so many bad gamblers is loyalty. They will simply back their favorite team week in week out, regardless of their odds because they want them to win, they are fans after all.

Warning Signs You’re a Square

These squares are destined to lose money and relatively quickly, there is simply no other way. It’s the squares and lemons of all varieties which fund the multi-million dollar betting industry. Their money builds the Las Vegas hotels, supports super casinos nationwide and they queue at the betting windows race after race at racetracks across the country.

Other symptoms of the lemon virus include:

• Betting on any match simply because it is on TV.
• Using loyalty ahead of logic and betting any side/team without employing any degree of common sense.
• Betting just prior to the start of a game when the betting lines will be very accurate.
• Not researching a game and looking out for omitted players through injury.
• Listening to the advice of bad tipsters – who are so smart they are broke and have to sell their betting advice.
• Failing to shop around bookmakers and online sportsbooks to get the best possible price about your selections.
• Employing futile ‘increase your stakes until backing a winner’ betting systems.

If you are displaying any of these signs stop betting immediately! Make a u-turn and give yourself a genuine chance of winning money.

Ok, being a pro gambler might be boring on some occasions and lack excitement but finding value, beating the system, having cash in your pocket comes with a great deal of satisfaction. Mug punting only amuses losers.

What the Sharps Do

To achieve financial independence through sports betting you will need to be dedicated and business-like. Sharp and shrewd gamblers really do cover all the bases and are regimental in their approach and faultless with their money management.

Here are some of the tools you will need in your box to succeed as a gambler:

• Calculating tools to assess potential bet wins and liabilities up-to-the-second at all times.
• Have multiple betting accounts funded and ready to use at an instant.
• Ability to track the movement of betting lines and prices through graph displays.
• Dedicated news feeds to get the latest injury and team news the moment they go public.
• A healthy bankroll to take advantage of any arbitrage outcomes (backing both win and loss scenarios in an event where you can guarantee a profit).
• Keep detailed records of your win/loss record on spread-sheets to identify where your profits are coming from (and losses going to).
• No time limitations to the time dedicated to finding angles – ‘professionalism’.
• Be prepared to place bets long before the start at the time when the lines have not been adjusted to reflect market forces.
• An endless supply of patience and restraint.
• No sense of loyalty to any team or player, approaching all games the same.
• Can and often do specialize in just one sporting genre.

Finding Value Odds

But above all you need to be creative and look into the more obscure markets for angles no one else has thought of. That’s because the traditional betting odds lines still carry the bulk of wagers and their money formulates the prices which pretty much mirror the likelihood of an outcome. They are near impossible to beat.

However obscure sports, and more specifically obscure betting markets within them, do not generate millions in turnover and the prices on offer reflect the betting opinions of very few and primarily the beliefs of a single odds compiler. Finding good value betting odds in the pricing here is very possible.

Keep Trade Secrets

And vitally, once your homework, spreadsheet analysis and home-grown algorithms start throwing out winning betting angles do not divulge your winning-finding system to anyone. Others will jump on to your formulas if they have indeed proven themselves money-makers.

In fact, sportsbooks track all customer’s bets and accounts and the moment a client starts to show regular profits the offending account will be fully audited and the source of the profits quite possibly identified.

Muddy the Waters

So another golden rule as a serious player is keeping your accounts in a messy and irregular fashion. Feed what appear to be mug bets on a wide selection of bets through them if and well possible. $50 on the Dolphins for a friend? Feed it through an account because this will be a distraction. Three show bets on a Triple Crown leg for the neighbours? Feed it through an account to disguise your true agenda.

As Gordon Gecko said in the classic movie ‘Wall Street’ (which was a gambling movie for all intents and purposes): “I don’t throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it is ever fought.”

Beating the bookies is a real war…

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