The US and their Western allies have a chequered history in tolerating repressive regimes guilty of human rights violations. Political leaders have turned a blind eye to people suffering to protect geopolitical stability. On February 24, Putin invaded the sovereign country of Ukraine. The unfolding situation is a significant test for the free world. Joe Biden’s response has been firm. The President said “We stand up for freedom. This is who we are.” Trump claims the invasion would never have happened if he was still president.
As the Russian advance continues and the midterm elections approach, Democratic and Republican sides battle for advantages. We try to give political bettors an insight into the changing situation.
Biden’s Sanctions
In response to Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, unprecedented sanctions have been imposed on Russia.
Measures adopted include preventing the Russian Central Bank from deploying its $740bn international reserves. All transactions with institutions like the Russian Finance Ministry and the National Wealth Fund are banned. Russian banks are no longer able to access the SWIFT payments system. 80% of the Russian banking sector is facing restrictions, and asset freezing. Politicians, military chiefs, and billionaire oligarchs close to Putin are on asset freeze and travel ban lists.
Political bettors should be aware that sanctions will not stop Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine. The consequences will be long-lasting and have implications on the US economy and Biden’s ratings.
Public Opinion
There is wide support amongst Democratic and Republican voters for the introduction of sanctions against Putin. A majority of the US population is willing to face higher domestic price increases, despite the problem of already surging inflation. Only 7% of voters are opposed to sanctions, as 80% blame Putin for escalating the crisis.
48% of US voters approve of Biden’s handling of the Ukrainian invasion. With a majority of 78% Democratic voter support, which flips to a 74% disapproval amongst Republicans.
If the conflict prolongs, only 19% of voters prefer direct US military aid to Ukraine as America’s primary response to the situation. As the situation develops and policies become clearer, political bettors may see changes to the odds at online sportsbooks.
The Trump Response
Donald Trump, a long-term admirer of Putin, said that the Russian leader is “very savvy” and “genius” when declaring the two regions of eastern Ukraine as independent states. Following the invasion, Trump tried to distance himself from Putin. He said “We are praying for the proud people of Ukraine. God bless them all. As everyone understands, this horrific disaster would never have happened if our election was not rigged and if I was the president.”
On February 26, at a Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando, Trump attacked Biden and other former presidents by saying: “Under Bush, Russia invaded Georgia. Under Obama, Russia took Crimea. Under Biden, Russia invaded Ukraine. I stand as the only president of the 21st century on whose watch Russia did not invade another country.” He added: “So sad. Putin is playing Biden like a drum and it’s not a pretty thing as somebody that loves our country to watch.”
The Democratic Party Response
Democrats dismissed Trump’s speech and condemned his close contact with Putin and the regime. They accused the GOP of never demonstrating enough resolve to halt Russian ambitions. In 2018, Trump stood by Putin and openly criticized US intelligence for concluding Moscow interfered in the 2016 election. There were multiple meetings and contacts with Russia, but an investigation could not prove direct collusion.
Adonna Biel, a spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee, said: “After spending four years selling out Ukraine, the defeated former president took the stage at CPAC to double down on his shameless praise for Putin as innocent Ukrainians shelter from bombs and missiles at the hands of Russia.”
The Republican Party Divide
With the midterm elections in November, the Republican Party’s attitude to the crisis will give voters and political bettors an insight into GOP foreign policy. A week into the invasion of Ukraine, the Party is divided in its direction.
Liz Cheney, who voted to impeach Trump, has criticized the former president’s positive remarks about Putin. He “aids our enemies. Trump’s interests don’t seem to align with the interests of the United States of America” said Cheney in a tweet
Those on the conservative side of the Party question the need for US involvement. J.D. Vance, an Ohio midterm election candidate for the US Senate, said: “l don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.” Although he has sympathy for those caught up in the war, he has expressed that the US southern border should be the priority.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a frequent critic of Biden, said “It appears to me the administration is moving in the right direction,” on Ukraine. But as Putin’s advance continues, McConnell is demanding that Biden impose tougher sanctions and provide weapons and intelligence to aid the Ukrainians.
The Republican division of opinion is a part of democracy that Putin wants to destroy in Ukraine. The President will play a central role in holding together global alliances during this crisis. Passing this test could put his Presidency back on track and determine his legacy.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
