The 2022 US midterm election battles are about to start, and the expectations for the Democratic Party retaining control of the Senate are low. However, a Republican victory is far from guaranteed. We look at the issues that could affect the election outcome and the political betting odds.
The Senate Split
The US Senate is split with 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats (including two independents). Democrats retain control of the chamber because Vice President Kamala Harris has the casting vote. There are 34 seats up for election in the midterms, 20 Republican and 14 Democrat. The Republicans will take control of the Senate if they win a Democrat seat and retain their own.
The Senate Numbers
Of the 34 seats, 14 are safe Republican, 10 are safe Democrat. There are 10 Senate battlegrounds, including Arizona and Wisconsin, which Biden won in 2019 by less than 1%. The swing-state elections can be influenced by Party performance, a state’s political history, the incumbent’s record of success, and a candidate’s fundraising abilities.
These factors will impact the candidates’ primary and midterms election betting odds.
The Senate Midterm History
Prospects for the Democratic Party remaining in control of the Senate are low, but historically the president’s party doesn’t always drop seats. In six out of the last 19 midterm elections, the party in power has either gained seats or held its position.
Voters can be influenced by the incumbent’s record rather than the national political environment. Although, with a decline in Biden’s popularity, the chances of a swing towards the Republicans could affect the betting odds offered by online sportsbooks.
The Senate Incumbents
The Senate election success rate favors the re-election of the incumbent. Swings can unselect incumbent office-holders, but results like that are an exception. Incumbents can be well-established politicians with favorable resources and don’t have to push as hard as a to get their name recognized and their election message out.
For the 2022 midterms, the Democrats have one Senator retiring. The Republicans have five, of which four are in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The Senate Campaign Dollars
As mentioned above, incumbent Senators have greater odds of re-election. For this reason, political action committees (PACs) donate a bigger proportion of their campaign dollars to incumbents. It is viewed as a safer bet than backing a new candidate. But for the 2022 Senate midterms, Donald Trump has to be taken into consideration. His Make America Great fund has over $100 million at its disposal to battle against the Democratic Party and Republicans who he sees as having been disloyal to him or the Republican cause.
The Republican Senator of Alaska, Lisa Murkowski, is just one of many politicians to be targeted because she voted to impeach the former president. He has endorsed Kelly Tshibaka in the primaries. As the amount of backing Trump is giving her becomes more apparent, expect her odds for winning the Alaska Senate to change.
New Voting Legislation
As a reaction to Trump’s false claims of voting fraud, many Republican states have passed bills that could limit early voting, voter purges (deleting names from registration lists), overhaul rules for in-person voting, and absentee voting.
In the battleground of Georgia, the Republicans have introduced legislation that could curtail Democratic voter turnout and greatly affect the midterm political betting odds.
The American Economy
Since Biden took office, the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.9% to 3.9%, wages are increasing, but so is inflation. The President says that rising costs are a temporary issue, but with the midterms looming, does he have time to stabilize the situation?
The Pandemic
The day-to-day life of US citizens is still being affected by the COVID pandemic. It is hard to predict what the situation will be in November. However, it’s fair to assume that how President Biden eases restrictions will influence voters in the midterm elections. Republicans already feel that Biden’s handling of the pandemic has violated fundamental freedoms.
Swing States
The Republicans and Democrats will battle for Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With Joe Biden’s control of the Senate at stake, the result of the 2022 midterm elections in these swing states is crucial.
Key Dates
For political bettors, the 2022 midterm elections offer numerous wagering opportunities. The primary battles commence on May 3 in Ohio, followed by the run-off elections throughout the summer and concluding on November 8, when voters cast their ballots.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
