With rising prices and almost 10,000 casino workers yet to return to work, Las Vegas, Nevada, symbolizes the struggles post-Covid that the Democratic Party faces going into the midterm elections.
The problem for the incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who is standing for reelection, is that even if there is an economic recovery before the November elections, infighting between centrists and left-wing activists has split the party in two.
However, could an assault on women’s rights by the US Supreme Court unite Nevada Democrats and boost their odds in this crucial election year?
We examine factors at play and the likelihood of Democrats winning in the 2022 Nevada midterm elections.
The Voters
Bernie Sanders inspired a new generation of voters to give him a Nevada Democratic presidential primary victory in 2020. Two years on, these same voters remain skeptical about President Biden.
In opinion polls, the President rates at just 41%, this is matched by a decline in registered Democrats – from 39.4% in 2016 to 33.6% in February, according to the Nevada secretary of state. 28% of Nevadan voters are now unaffiliated, a decrease of 20% since 2016.
Officials blame an automatic voter registration system introduced in 2018, but some voters feel unrepresented by leaders.
In Nevada, the Democrats need the working-class and Latino support to win elections. However, the loyalty of both groups is now in doubt as they question the incumbent Senator’s performance.
The Democrat Senator
A win for Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the former Nevada attorney general and the first Latina senator in the US, is critical if the Democrats are to maintain control of the Senate. But despite links to the Latino and minority communities (52%), the incumbent faces a tough battle in her bid for reelection.
With only 24% of residents born in Nevada, voter recognition is a challenge for the incumbent. Populations have migrated from California, Arizona, Chicago, and the New York district, plus there is a high foreign-born influx (20%) compared to the US average. The result is that almost 50% of voters have newly registered since Cortez Masto was elected in 2016.
The Economy
Nevada’s economy is showing signs of post-pandemic improvement. But despite Las Vegas reporting the best casino winnings ever for a February, there are almost 10,000 casino workers out of work. The Nevada Gaming Control Board reported a 12th straight month of $1 billion or more in casino house winnings, which will benefit the state with almost $59 million in taxes, up more than 34% from a year ago.
Unemployment figures are also rebounding, with a statewide jobless rate of 5.1%, compared to 30.1% during the pandemic.
Catherine Cortez Masto’s midterm campaign message on the economy is how the Democrats supported the US population with the American Rescue Plan. This COVID relief package targeted support for small businesses and Nevada’s hospitality industry, which was hard hit during the pandemic shutdown.
But with rising inflation at 8.5% – almost a 40-year high – surging costs for housing – homes in Las Vegas up 24.9% year-over-year, and a rise of 48% at the gas pumps, things have got to improve before bettors wager on a Democrat electoral gain.
The Party Split
Another problem is the feud within the Nevada Democratic Party between the Senate majority leader and insurgent Sanders supporters who took control of the state party. Voters have witnessed embarrassing headlines, resignations, and the forming of a breakaway committee.
Catherine Cortez Masto, who is part of the new group the Nevada Democratic Victory, has diverted resources, time, and energy on the split rather than the midterm campaign trail.
The progressives who control the Nevada Democratic Party see the new organization as anti-democratic. For this reason, they have tried to prevent funding without their authorization by alerting the Federal Election Commission that Nevada Democratic Victory falsely claimed, to the Federal Government, affiliation with the Nevada State Democratic Party.
A knock-on effect is Catherine Cortez Masto has been denied access to voter data – an essential tool in any election race.
For those wagering on the election, will divisions between the activist left and the center drive voters to the right?
Roe V. Wade
During her political career, Catherine Cortez Masto has championed women’s rights, health issues, and what is now a key election issue, access to abortions. A recent leak of the US Supreme Court’s deliberations on Roe v. Wade, which established a Constitutional right to abortion, suggests that the Court plans to overturn the 1973 act.
American women have never lived without the ability to control their bodies…
In response, Biden’s government has tabled the Women’s Health Protection Act to try and safeguard women’s access to critical reproductive health care, including abortion. During the debate, Senator Cortez Masto took to the Senate floor in Washington and said: “Most American women have never lived without the ability to control their bodies, their health, and their families’ economic well-being” and added: “This would be one of the very few times in American history where the Court has taken away rights, rather than expanding them.”
In the upcoming November elections, the erosion of fundamental rights by the conservative US Supreme Court could motivate Democrat voters to unite, mobilize and increase their odds of a vital midterm gain. Therefore, now could be the time for bettors to place action on the Democrats.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
