Facing a barrage of sexual harassment and cover-up allegations, the three-term New York governor Andrew Cuomo was forced to resign from office. His shock fall from power created an open race for the state’s highest office, setting the stage for competitive Democratic and Republican midterm primaries in 2022. New York has not had a Republican governor since 2006, and the polls predict a Democratic win in November.
But could a nominee with a broad appeal turn voters right? We examine the candidates and the political situation for bettors.
New York State
New York is the third-largest state in the US, with a population of 20,201,249, and New York City is the largest city in the US, 43% of the state’s diverse population lives in the city. The four main groups are White 69.6%, Hispanic 19.3%, Black or African American 17.6%, and Asian 9%.
New York has voted Democratic in presidential elections since 1988. In the last 15 presidential elections Republicans have only been sucessful three times: 1972, 1980 and 1984. Biden easily carried the state in 2020, with 60% of the vote.
Statistically, most white Americans vote Republican. However, white college graduates and white suburban voters have increasingly turned against Donald Trump’s version of the Republican party. Trump has supporters in Staten Island and the white working-class areas in Brooklyn. He is also making gains with some non-white voters in New York City. Republicans usually win in rural areas, especially in the western part of the state that borders Pennsylvania.
The Democratic strength comes from the diverse voter base in New York City and urban cities like Rochester, Buffalo, Albany, and Syracuse. Long Island has more registered Democrats than Republican supporters, but many Democrats were voted out of office in recent legislative elections because their voters stayed at home.
For those wagering on the midterm elections, the Democrats appear to be in crisis mode, with many questioning Biden’s leadership. This could offer the Republicans a chance to take a high-profile state if they are wise with their choice of nominee.
The Democrats
As a result of the premature departure of Cuomo, Democrats will have their first contested primary in decades. The race has attracted a diverse group of candidates. Some are well-known political figures with a history-making potential, while others will test racial and ideological views in this liberal state.
Governor Kathy Hochul – Poll Rating 50%
When Kathy Hochul replaced the disgraced Mr. Cuomo, she was the first woman to hold the office and, if successful in November, will be the first woman elected as Governor. Ms. Hochul, a former congresswoman from the Buffalo area, previously served as Mr. Cuomo’s lieutenant governor for six years.
Hochul is a moderate Democrat. Her short time as Governor has fully exposed her to the voters as the state has dealt with the pandemic crisis, its economic fallout, and implementation of infrastructure improvements in New York’s cities.
She now is running for a full term with all of the advantages of the incumbency. However, Kathy Hochul’s job performance rating as Governor has fallen to just 36%.
Jumaane Williams – Poll Rating 11%
New York Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, an activist, and democratic socialist is trying to attract left-leaning voters with progressive policies. He is of Grenadian heritage and grew up in Brooklyn, and would be the state’s first elected Black governor.
I’ve spent my life fighting for and creating change on behalf of the people…
He has a decade of experience on the New York City Council on stop-and-frisk policies and gun violence. Additionally, he is an active campaigner who has been arrested during demonstrations.
This populist candidate said: “I’ve spent my life fighting for and creating change on behalf of the people – in the streets and in the halls of government.”
Tom Suozzi – Poll Rating 10%
Congressman Tom Suozzi, a longtime political figure in New York, first ran for governor in 2006 and was elected to the House of Representatives in 2016. He is a centrist Democrat focused on lowering taxes, reducing crime, protecting the environment, and challenging the party’s left-wing.
Mr. Suozzi is looking to cut into Ms. Hochul’s support among moderate and suburban voters. He accused Hochul of being “untrustworthy and inexperienced” and of fostering a “culture of corruption” as her lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, was charged with bribery.
The Republicans
The Republican Party has not won a statewide election in New York since 2002. To stand any chance of winning the election in November, the right choice of candidate is essential. The Republican field has emerged with a military man, a golf pro friendly with Trump, and a media producer.
Lee Zeldin – Poll Rating 40%
Long Island congressman Lee Zeldin won the state Republican committee’s designation with 85% of the vote. Zeldin declared it is the last chance to “save our state” from the Democratic left-leaning policies that have resulted in rising crime and higher taxes. A staunch supporter of Mr. Trump, he voted in Congress to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, which might be problematic in a state where Mr. Trump remains unpopular.
This is a battle for the heart and soul of the state…
Mr. Zeldin, who served in the US Army, is a well-known politician who was elected to the New York State Senate in 2010 and Congress in 2015. Zeldin has championed healthcare for disabled veterans, support for those suffering in the opioid crisis, and local environmental measures.
At a recent rally, Zeldin told his supporters: “New Yorkers are hitting their breaking point and they are desperate,” continuing, “This is a battle for the heart and soul of the state.”
Andrew Giuliani – Poll Rating 19%
Andrew Giuliani, the son of the former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, has launched his first run for public office. He was a professional golfer, TV commentator and worked as a special assistant for Donald Trump, which may help in the midterm primary, but be a negative in the general election.
He hopes his campaign on business deregulation, school choice, and public safety will appeal to New York voters. On announcing his campaign Giuliani said: “Like my parents before me, New York is in my blood,”
Robert Astorino – Poll Rating 15%
Rob Astorino, served as Westchester County executive from 2010 to 2017. The former TV and radio producer, ran unsuccessfully for the State Senate in 2020. Eight years after starting his first campaign, Astorino is runnning for Governor again after being defeated by Cuomo.
Astorino has criticized his fellow candidate’s ties to the disgraced former governor, “Lee Zeldin had his time in Albany voting with Cuomo and Cuomo his mentor and being a reliable vote for Cuomo.”
The Voters Choice
Both the Republican and Democratic Parties are facing internal pressures on which direction they turn – left or right. Many voters now perceive the Democratic Party as too liberal and want representation from more moderate candidates.
The Republicans see an opportunity to increase their share of the vote due to past and present scandals, the unpopularity of the incumbent, and a rejection of the national policies of President Biden.
Political bettors should note that although New York State is a Democratic stronghold, the Republican success in the 2021 legislative elections demonstrated that given the right choice of nominee, plus voter mobilization there is always the chance of a shock result.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
