As Idaho is a Republican stronghold, all the GOP have to do is stay focused on their core message and let Republican voters express their disdain for Biden and the left. However, with just weeks to go before the midterm primaries, Republican moderates and extremists have turned this easy election into an ideological civil war. The GOP establishment watch as hardliners in Idaho take politics to the extreme.
We examine if Donald Trump’s destructive influence has could lead to his self-destruction.
Idaho
The Republicans have near-total control of Idaho. They hold 86 out of 105 legislative seats and make up all of the state’s congressional delegation.
Economically the state is growing rapidly and is 4th in US performance rankings. Additionally, the unemployment rate is low at 2.7%, against a national rate of 3.6%. And with a $1.9 billion budget surplus, the incumbent Governor Brad Little introduced tax cuts of $600 million, the biggest tax cuts in the state’s history.
Idaho’s prosperity has resulted in the fastest population growth in the US at 2.9%. However, if political bettors look closer, there is another reason for the increase.
Blue State Refugees
There is a group of newcomers calling themselves Blue State Refugees. They are anti-government militants who feel ideologically isolated by both the Biden administration and the traditional GOP conservatives. They escaped state-imposed lockdowns in “blue” states like California and have been attracted to Idaho by the right-wing Republican battle for personal freedoms and less government.
Fragmented Republican Party
“There’s a civil war in the Idaho Republican Party,” said Idaho Democratic Party chair Fred Cornforth. “There are really three or four parties” claiming to be Republican: “There are the populists — the ones making the most noise — and libertarians, moderates who’ve shifted right of center, meaning they aren’t really moderates any more, and Republicans who don’t recognize their party anymore and will drift over to voting Dem.”
There’s a civil war in the Idaho Republican Party
Chuck Malloy, a Republican commentator said: “I’ve been saying for a long time Idaho is a two-party state…The Republican Party and the More Republican Party.”
The Idaho Republican chair Tom Luna admitted that the battle for control of the party means: “This will be a primary like we’ve never seen in Idaho.”
The question for political bettors is could the Republican split help the democrats win in this state?
Governor Vs. Lieutenant Governor
Since 2019, an ideological battle has played out between Governor Brad Little and right-wing Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin, who pursued a campaign to upstage and undermine the Governor. During the pandemic, she opposed Little’s emergency stay-home orders, business-closures, and criticized federal economic relief measures. Every time he left the state she issued executive orders banning mask requirements, mandatory vaccination, and Covid testing.
McGeachin branded Little a RINO (Republican In Name Only) and with the Region One Central Committee of the Idaho Republican Party, passed a resolution denying any further political support to Little, claiming his covid response violated State Law and caused irreparable harm to the people and businesses of Idaho.
For generations, the Little family have been the embodiment of the Republican establishment. However, for McGeachin and the Republican right Little stands in the way of the Trump revolution.
Little now faces McGeachin in the Idaho midterm primaries. Donald Trump has endorsed McGeachin.
Trump Endorsement
Donald Trump gave McGeachin his endorsement for being a “true supporter of MAGA since the very beginning.” In 2016 she endorsed Trump in his presidential campaign – she was his Idaho Team vice-chair and a Trump delegate to the national convention.
true supporter of MAGA since the very beginning
“I am giving Janice McGeachin my complete and total endorsement to be the governor of Idaho,” said Trump. “She will make a fantastic governor, and will never let you down.”
Little has never been a threat to Trump but he seeks to unseat the incumbent so McGeachin can promote the hard-right Trump agenda. Many in the Republican establishment think Trump has gone too far, but some extremists believe he has not gone far enough.
The Rebel – Ammon Bundy
Another candidate is Ammon Bundy, who has entered the 2022 Idaho gubernatorial election as an independent. He initially announced a bid for the Republican nomination to protect Idaho from “Joe Biden and those in the Deep State that control him.” Bundy also said: “the Republican establishment in Idaho is full of filth and corruption, and they refuse to put forth the party platform.”
Ammon Bundy now wants to take control with his People’s Rights Network, a far-right group of paramilitaries, anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, preppers, and other extremists. Their aim is to “take back control of the Idaho government” and “restore… conservative values.”
During the pandemic, he led protests against Brad Little’s emergency mask-wearing and distancing rules at local government offices, school board meetings, and officials’ homes around the state.
Bundy is no stranger to extreme actions. The anti-government activist led an armed standoff at the Malheur Wildlife Refuge in Oregon in a dispute over federal public lands he believed should be turned over to individual states.
An extremist watchdog, the Center for Western Priorities, now believes the Oregon armed occupation was ‘dress rehearsal’ for the January 6 Capitol Hill riot.
January 6 Connection
Prior to January 6, Ammon Bundy posted a video urging the People’s Right Network to attend Donald Trump’s “Save America” rally and “stand for a constitutional republic.” He told them to go to Washington and: “Don’t wear a mask and stand for freedom.”
The extremist ideologies and tactics…same ideologies that President Trump has stoked among his supporters
“The extremist ideologies and tactics that led to the violent occupation of public lands in Oregon are the same ideologies that President Trump has stoked among his supporters,” said Jennifer Rokala, executive director of the Center for Western Priorities.
Trump has emboldened the hard-right activists to step forward and enter mainstream politics. His influence has unleashed an extremist momentum that may now be out of his control.
As the January 6 committee investigates Trump’s influence on that dark day, will it be the actions of the people he influenced that eventually bring him down?
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
