georgia midterm

January 6, 2020, is a day Donald Trump will never forget, one of the darkest days of his divisive presidency. An angry mob of his supporters stormed the US Capitol and for the first time in 20 years, the Democrats won both Georgia Senate seats in an election runoff which gave Biden a US Senate majority.

Trump now wants to regain control in Georgia by endorsing ex-football star Herschel Walker.

We take political bettors through the issues Republicans are facing in the 2022 Midterm US Senate Primary and the November general election.


The State Of Georgia

In 2020 Georgia’s political establishment was stunned. It was the first time a Demo­cratic pres­id­en­tial candid­ate had won the state of Georgia since 1992, the first time since 1996 the Democrats had won a US Senate seat, and the first time since 2008 they won any state-wide election.

Winning two US Senate seats took the Senate to a 50-50 split, with Kamala Harris having the deciding vote. The result finally tipped the balance of power away from Donald Trump but dramatically improved the odds of Joe Biden’s progressive agenda.

Victory in Georgia for the Democrats’ marked a shift in voter demographics. The state has seen an increase in ethnic and racial diversity and a move of people from rural areas into the cities like Atlanta.

The reality for Republicans is that their former stronghold is now a battleground state, and they need every asset to win, including the right choice of candidates.



The Trump Endorsement: Herschel Walker

Trump has endorsed a local hero and former NFL football star Herschel Walker for the U.S. Senate. He has very little political experience and has only recently returned to Georgia after living in Texas for decades.

Before Trump’s backing, Herschel Walker had not publicly expressed a desire to become a politician. Still, Trump saw an opportunity in this well-known former football star who could appeal to the Black vote and dispel the idea Republicans are racist.

He would be unstoppable, just like he was when he played for the Georgia Bulldogs

Trump stated: “Wouldn’t it be fantastic if the legendary Herschel Walker ran for the United States Senate in Georgia?” He added: “He would be unstoppable, just like he was when he played for the Georgia Bulldogs, and in the NFL. He is also a great person. Run Herschel, run!”

Despite Trump’s high praises, Walker may not be such a clear-cut choice for voters or political bettors.


The Untruths – Education

Herschel Walker has consistently inflated his academic credentials. He was supposed to have graduated top of his class at the University of Georgia. The truth is he never graduated from college. Instead, he left to play professional football.

Walker said that he grew up as a “fat kid” with a stutter, had dissociative identity disorder and, as a result, was ignored by teachers and verbally abused by other children. Despite these disadvantages, Walker claimed he graduated as the highest-ranking student in his class, but there is no evidence to support this claim.


The Abuse

Herschel Walker’s ex-wife secured an order of protection against him because of multiple threats he made against her life. She accused him of pointing a pistol at her head and saying, ‘I’m going to blow your f’ing brains out.’ She filed for divorce, citing “physically abusive and extremely threatening behavior.’”



Primary Election Danger

Herschel Walker leads the polls with a strong 63.8%. His main challenger Gary Black has only 8% support. At a meeting of the Putnam County Republican Party Black appealed to voters by saying: “Folks, he can’t win in November,” and referencing Walker’s past said: “The baggage is too heavy. It’ll never happen.”

By drawing attention to Walker’s weaknesses, his opponents hope to get his vote share to under 50% in the Republican midterm US Senate primary and force a June runoff.


The Democratic Incumbent

The ratification of the 1870 15th Amendment gave all African American men the right to vote and hold office. Despite this right, Georgia had to wait until 2020, when Raphael Warnock made history by becoming the state’s first Black senator and the first popularly elected Black Democratic senator from the South.



General Election Danger

Predictions for the November 8 general election give Herschel Walker a marginal lead over Raphael Warnock, 47.8% to 46.2%. The battle for the Senate seat could get very ugly as the Democrats have lots of ammunition to throw at Trump’s endorsement.

Although Walker will have Trump’s Make America Great Again super PAC to counter any attack, Warnock is also well funded. He could use his $17 million war chest to smear his opposition candidate with accusations of untruths and sexual violence.

When wagering on the 2022 Primary Midterm Elections, political bettors might see a trend emerging in the suitability of Trump’s endorsements. They might get elected to represent the Republican Party by Trump’s supporters. But a major shift in political power could undermine their appeal to swing voters.


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Philip Carlson
Writer

Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com