The 2022 midterm elections are on course to shatter all previous spending and fundraising records. The Democratic and Republican Parties have record amounts of cash. Donald Trump’s political operations have over $100 million to spend and Billionaire philanthropist George Soros has given $125 million to back Democrat candidates and causes.
Millionaires have pumped money into their own campaigns, but small donors are playing a bigger role in politics than ever before. There is going to be massive spending on all sides, at all levels, in both the primaries and the midterm general elections. We ask if the funding could determine the odds ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Polarized Politics
In a typical midterm election year, voter turnout and fundraising do not reach that of the presidential race. However, expectations for 2022, are that voters will be fully engaged. With politics polarized and the balance of power in both chambers at stake, the election battle has already commenced. Both parties need to generate additional campaign dollars to ensure the bigger, wider, and increasingly sophisticated campaigns reach all potential voters.
Advertising
It is predicted that for the 2022 midterm elections, up to $7.8 billion will be spent on TV, digital, and radio ads. Higher than the $5.15 billion spent in 2018, and nearing the 2019 presidential election levels of $7.9 billion. The numbers are an indicator that primary battles between Trump and traditional Republican candidates will be hard-fought. In addition, it is a sign of the Democrats’ urgency to mobilize all of its support bases.
Campaign advertising will flood voters in battleground states and districts, but bettors will need to assess if intended targets are being reached.
Big Donors
Wealthy donors used to be the domain of the Republicans, being perceived as a corporate-friendly and low tax party. The Democratic Party desired to remain free of big-money donor influence, but necessity has forced change. Both parties now require much larger fundraising levels and welcome the massive sums of money big donors can provide.
If targeted wisely, the cash could have a significant effect on the election odds.
Small Donors
With social media and online political groups, party exposure to small donors has exploded and these donors are very important to fundraising. The Democratic National Committee raised $151 million in 2021, of which $66 million was of donations of under $200. Republicans have had great success with the online fundraising platform WinRed, collecting $162 million in 2021. The Democrats have raised $223 million, through their version ActBlue. Trump’s Save America PAC has raised $105 million, the bulk of which came from small donors, the average of which was $31.
The power of the small donors is important for both parties, but will Trump’s exit from social media affect his odds at the online sportsbooks.
Individual Candidates
Some individual candidates in highly contested races have raised large sums of money. Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock recently raised $9.8 million and reported a total of $17.2 million in his campaign account. The Trump-supporting former football player Herschel Walker raised $3.7 million in the 2 months after he entered the race and now has amassed a total of $5.4million.
Self-funding
In the battleground state of Ohio, Republican candidate and investment banker Mike Gibbons and Republican Senator Matt Dolan have each invested $10 million of their own money into their campaigns. Bernie Moreno and former state Republican Party Chairwoman Jane Timken have banked $3.5 million of their own funds. Tim Ryan, a Democratic nomination, has $5 million of his own funds to use.
The Parties
Both the Republican and Democratic committees raised millions of dollars more in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2019 and 2017. The National, House, and Senate committees raised approximately $400 million each. The Democrats will invest heavily in raising voter awareness, and the Republican party has Trump to contend with. Will the money make a difference to the odds with online sportsbooks.
Political Action Committees
Political Action Committees (PACs) and super PACs can fundraise and spend unlimited money, and will be an essential help with campaigning in this election year.
The billionaire liberal philanthropist George Soros donated $125 million to his own Democrat-leaning PAC to support causes and candidates who share a mission of protecting and strengthening the infrastructure of American democracy.
Donald Trump’s PACs ended 2021 with around $120 million in the bank. The cash at his disposal highlights his dominance of the Republican party ahead of November’s midterms when control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs.
It is predicted by many election odds websites that when the millions have been spent, control of Washington will return to the Republican Party. Political bettors should consider before wagering on the midterms, that if traditional Republicans reject Trump’s dominance and the Democratic Party’s investments are successful in mobilizing its voters, the results on November 8, 2022, may look very different.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
