Donald Trump has vowed to unseat Liz Cheney in the Wyoming 2022 midterm primary race. He seeks vengeance because the Republican incumbent member of Congress voted to impeach him over the January 2021 US Capitol Riots. The GOP primary will be a referendum on Trump’s control of the Party. We examine if now is the time to wager on Wyoming Republicans voting to unseat Liz Cheney, a Republican establishment figure.
The Incumbent Liz Cheney
Liz Cheney was first elected to Congress in 2016. She stood on a conservative agenda of promoting job creation by cutting taxes, regulations, and expanding America’s energy, mining, and agriculture industries.
Beyond Wyoming, Cheney wanted to restore America’s power and influence around the world. Cheney became a prominent figure within the GOP, serving as the Chair of the House Republican Conference, and to the horror of the Republican Party, is currently serving as the Vice-Chair for the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 attack on the United States Capitol.
January 6 Committee
Liz Cheney, the daughter of a former vice president, belongs to the Republican establishment. Trump is an anti-establishment outsider, and for his role in inciting a deadly insurrection at Capitol Hill, Cheney voted in favor of impeaching Donald J Trump.
Cheney said: “The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.”
When a House Select Committee was set up to investigate the attack, the Republican congresswoman said she was honored to join. “What happened on January 6th can never happen again. Those who are responsible for the attack need to be held accountable and this select committee will fulfill that responsibility in a professional, expeditious, and nonpartisan manner.”
GOP Sanctions
For her actions against Trump, Liz Cheney was formally censured as a member of the Republican Party for her behavior which was deemed destructive to the institution of the US House of Representatives and the Republican Party. The Wyoming Republican Party no longer recognizes Liz Cheney as a member of the GOP.
Trump Revenge
Donald Trump seeks ‘vengeance’ against Liz Cheney because she voted to impeach him. He aims to defeat Cheney in the Wyoming Republican primary and end her political career. On the morning of January 6, Trump said of those voting against him: “And we’ve got to remember, in a year from now, you’re going to start working on Congress and we got to get rid of the weak Congresspeople, the ones that aren’t any good, the Liz Cheneys of the world,” he continued “We’ve got to get rid of them.”
The Republican Primary
The major candidates running in this Primary are Liz Cheney, Harriet Hageman, the Trump-endorsed candidate, Anthony Bouchard, Denton Knapp, and Robyn Belinsky.
Cheney will benefit from being the incumbent as she is a well-known figure, with the profile to challenge all of the candidates. However, Trump hopes his endorsement will eliminate the other candidates so the primary is between Cheney and Hageman.
For those betting on the election, the question is will voters of Wyoming vote for Trumpism over the Republican establishment?
The War Chest
Liz Cheney’s high-profile battle with Trump has attracted funds not only from the Republican establishment but from Democratic donors in Wyoming and across the US. Official figures show that Cheney fundraised $7.2 million in 2021, a record for the Wyoming House district. In comparison, Harriet Hageman raised $745,000.
Political bettors should consider that although Cheney’s campaign appears to have a financial advantage, Hageman has the backing of Trump and his $100 million Make America Great PAC.
Wyoming State
Wyoming is the least populous state in the nation and has only one seat in the US House of Representatives. According to the 2020 Census, 81.4% are white and 19.6% are multi-racial. The state has not elected a Democrat since 1976, and the last competitive election was in 2006. Liz Cheney won the 2020 election with almost 70% of the vote.
As a safe Republican seat, Democrats could use a Wyoming state election law that permits voters to swap their affiliation and vote for a candidate in the opposing party’s primary. So it may be the Democrats’ anti-Trump votes that save Liz Cheney’s political career and her odds of being reelected.
Presidential Candidate
Reelection for the Wyoming congresswoman will send out a message beyond her congressional district. For the Republican establishment, Liz Cheney is the most prominent voice in the party to stand up against Trump. Cheney’s supporters see her as an obvious choice for a presidential candidate in 2024. Eric Edelman, a former adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney, said: “If there was going to be a Never-Trump candidate, I can’t think of anyone better.”
Former President Donald Trump still has a stronghold over the Republican Party. The GOP primary on August 16 will be a referendum on Trump and the future direction of the Party. The result in Wyoming will be an indicator of the strength and loyalty of his support and be an influence on the odds sportsbooks offer on him being re-elected.
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
