Donald Trump is an anti-establishment figure, and throughout his political career, has pushed against Washington’s norms. Trump has not announced his presidential candidacy for 2024 but remains a powerful influence on Republican voters. By endorsing candidates that will reinforce his agenda in the 2022 midterm primaries, Trump is attempting to shape the future of the Republican Party. We examine the former president’s influence on the midterm elections and the politics betting odds at online sportsbooks.
The Motivation
One of Donald Trump’s goals with the upcoming primaries is to punish the disloyal and reward the loyal by endorsing candidates in the Republican primaries. Trump can rely on his loyal supporters to turn out in numbers and vote for his choices. If successful, it will provide Trump with greater control of the GOP and give the betting odds of his presidential ambitions a real boost.
The Endorsement Stats
With the midterm primaries still months away, Donald Trump is already involved in the election process. He has endorsed 93 candidates for political positions, from Washington Senators and House Representatives, State Governors to Executives and State Legislative officials who implement and enforce laws. Of the endorsements, 59 challenged the 2020 presidential election result and the Electoral College certification in Congress. Ten candidates supported Trump at his rally on January 6, 2021, before Capitol Hill was stormed.
The Endorsees
Trump’s involvement in the Republican midterm primaries risks dividing his party because the electability of the candidates he is endorsing seems to be a second thought.
The former president’s endorsement in the state of Georgia is an example. He has backed a local hero and former NFL football star Herschel Walker for the US Senate. He has little political experience and has only recently returned to Georgia after living in Texas for decades.
Another is the backing of the little-known Geoff Diehl, a supporter of “stop the steal”. His endorsement is to punish the popular incumbent and two-term Republican Governor of Massachusetts, Charlie Baker. Trump said of Baker, “He has totally abandoned the principles of the Republican Party, never cutting taxes and undermining our agenda. Baker is definitely not an American First or Make America Great Again kind of guy.”
In Washington state’s 3rd Congressional District, Trump has endorsed Joe Kent, a political novice with a military background and a newcomer to the district. The Republican incumbent is Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler, who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the January 6 Capitol riot. Beutler is an established Republican who has been reelected five times. Without Trump’s support, Joe Kent would be in no position to challenge the incumbent.
The choice of endorsements may not immediately appear to be vote winners, but nor were the political betting odds of Trump, the reality TV star, being elected president.
Election Control
Trump has backed a group of Republicans running for Secretary of State in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, whose responsibilities include elections. Trump’s endorsements are all supporters of the unfounded claims of voter fraud. In 2020 the three incumbents refused to overturn the “stop the steal” presidential result. If Trump’s endorsees were to win their elections, they could overturn a future Democratic election victory and upset the political betting odds.
When the midterm primaries begin in Texas on March 1, 2022, we will see how the political races evolve. Will Trump’s little-known candidates appeal to Republican voters, or will they reject Trumpism as the future course of the GOP?
Check out all of the latest midterm 2022 political betting odds
Philip Carlson is a gambling industry analyst based in NYC. He covers political global political betting markets and sports-betting for Vegas-odds.com
