by Ben Perks
After an injury-plagued season, Vegas oddsmakers favor Jameis Winston to rise from the ashes and win the AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
Although Winston struggled at Tampa Bay, the New Orleans Saints gave him a chance to become their favored right signal-caller. In the first few games, the 28-year-old showed promise but had his season cut short after tearing his ACL when playing against his former team in Week 8.
Winston became a free agent at the end of the 2021 season. However, because the Saints failed to secure Deshaun Watson’s services, they re-signed him on a two-year deal. As a result, he’s now the No. 1 quarterback at a team expected to make the playoffs.
View the opening favorites and which players represent decent betting value for the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year award.
Betting Odds for the 2022 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | +400 |
| Michael Thomas | +800 |
| Derrick Henry | +900 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +900 |
| Daniel Jones | +1200 |
| JK Dobbins | +1200 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1200 |
| Mitch Trubisky | +1400 |
| Marcus Mariota | +1400 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2000 |
| Chase Young | +2000 |
| Cam Akers | +2200 |
| Robert Woods | +2200 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | +2200 |
| Khalil Mack | +2500 |
| Drew Lock | +2500 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +2500 |
| Chris Godwin | +2500 |
| Travis Etienne | +2800 |
| Danielle Hunter | +3300 |
| Will Fuller V | +3300 |
| Raheem Mostert | +3300 |
| Chris Carson | +3300 |
| Marcus Peters | +4000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +4000 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | +5000 |
| James White | +5000 |
| Gus Edwards | +1000 |
AP NFL Comeback POY Favorites
Jameis Winston New Orleans Saints
Winston’s fresh start with his new team didn’t work out as planned despite a decent start. The quarterback managed a 5-2 record, 14 passing touchdowns, and only committed three interceptions before getting injured in the 36-27 victory against the Bucs.
After signing Alvin Kamara (2020-2021 receptions leader), Michael Thomas (2016-2019 receptions leader), and Jarvis Landry (2014-2017 Dolphins; 2018-2020 Browns receptions leader), General Manager Mickey Loomis has provided the QB with a solid supporting cast to better his output this season.
With a new coach (Dennis Allen) and new weapons, it’s unsurprising to see Jameis Winston as the early favorite. Yet at +400, and with question marks surrounding his recovery, he doesn’t represent the best betting value.
NFL Comeback POY Value Bets
Since 2010, all but one of the AP Comeback Player of the Year winners had two things in common: they were returning from injury, and their teams made the playoffs. With this in mind, the candidates below all have a solid chance of landing the award.
Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
Henry lived up to the hype in 2019 after securing a 1,500+ yard, 16 touchdown campaign in 2019 and an incredible 2,000+ rushing yard, 17 touchdown year in 2020 to win the Offensive Player of the Year award.
Despite missing the last nine games of the regular season with a foot injury, he still managed 937 yards in eight games. It’s unlikely that he’ll refind his 2020 form again this year, but don’t rule him out getting close to 1,500 yards – and if he does, he could easily win the honors.
As some sportsbooks have Derrick Henry at +300 to win AP NFL Comeback POY, placing action on him at BetOnline – where he’s at +900 – is excellent betting value.
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
As ten of the last NFL CPOY award winners have been quarterbacks – including each of the previous four, it seems unwise to bet on players holding other positions.
As a former MVP, Jackon has proven he has the skills required to land this accolade. But as he only missed five games due to injury last season, the panel may consider his potential comeback less impressive than those of other candidates.
Nevertheless, at +1200, he’s a tempting wagering option.
View the latest betting lines for upcoming NFL games.
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
