by Ben Perks
After Golden State made it three out of three on Sunday, it’s now or never for Dallas. Despite their dominance in the series, Vegas oddsmakers have only made the Warriors slight favorites on the moneyline in Game 4 of the NBA Western Conference Finals.
Can Luka Doncic inspire a comeback to push this series to five games, or will Curry and co. secure their place in the NBA Finals on Tuesday?
Get betting insights and odds for Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks.
Curry the Key
Steph Curry’s ability to drive the ball during this series has made the Warriors look clueless in defense. Curry is averaging 28 points on 49.1% shooting per game.
In the last three games, the Mavs’ focus on keeping Curry off the 3-point line has made them give up high-percentage looks at the rim.
Curry is averaging 28 points on 49.1% shooting per game.
The Warriors have a +14.2 Net Rating, a 120.5 Offensive Rating, and a 106.3 Defensive Rating — the best in the Conference Finals. They’ve achieved this despite a 15.3% turnover percentage, which is worse than their regular-season record of 15%.
Curry’s drives have been so effective partly due to scheme but mainly because the Mavericks look exhausted. Dallas have almost played the maximum number of postseason games against quality opposition with what is effectively a six-man rotation.
The Warriors have also had the upper hand in this department. However, as Otto Porter Jr. (foot) may sit out Game 4, their rotations might not pack the same punch at the American Airlines center on Tuesday.
Can the Mavericks Turn It Around?
As the Mavs need four consecutive wins against the Warriors to reach the NBA Finals, it seems out of their reach. But with Luka Doncic on the court, they could make Golden State wait a bit longer to punch their ticket.
…with Luka Doncic on the court, they could make Golden State wait a bit longer to punch their ticket
Dallas has struggled to break down the Warriors’ zone defense. And despite them taking 52% of their shots from 3-point range during the series, they’ve only made 33.3% of them.
Their poor shooting – combined with their 42.1% Rebounding Rate and 18.2% Offensive Rebounding Rate – has limited their number of second-chance opportunities.
Also, as the Mavs are at a size disadvantage, they need to improve in the shooting department to upset the odds at NBA betting sites.
Game 4 Betting Insights
Although bettors tend to back the series losers when 0-3 in the NBA Playoffs, those teams are 20-30-3 against the spread and just 14-39 in straight-up wins since 2005 – when you limit this to Conference Finals games, teams are just 3-4 in wins.
Many think the Warriors might lack the motivation to finish the series so early. Yet the stats suggest otherwise: they are 5-2 straight up with an average margin of six points when approaching a clean sweep since the 2015 playoffs.
The Mavericks have been able to keep up with the way Golden State have adapted throughout the series.
Therefore, the Mavs’ impressive run will likely come to a halt on May 24.
View the latest betting lines for the Eastern Conference Finals.
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
