by Ben Perks
The Phoenix Suns are hot favorites to beat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of their second-round playoff series on May 2.
As the Suns have beaten the Mavericks in their last nine meetings and are the top seed, sportsbooks have them at -235 to start the NBA Western Conference second-round playoff series with a victory.
However, the Mavs will be hoping Luka Doncic’s fine return to form will help them upset the odds at Footprint Center this Monday.
Get insights and the latest betting lines for Mavericks @ Suns.
Mavericks @ Suns: NBA Betting Info
- Vegas oddsmakers have made the Suns -235 moneyline favorites for Game 1 against the Mavericks
- The Suns are currently the second favorites to win the NBA Championship (+310)
- Before Game 1, NBA betting sites have the Mavericks as +2200 underdogs to win the NBA Finals
- The Suns are 21-22 against the spread as a home favorite this season and 4-2 in the playoffs
Can Booker Get Back to Form?
Even without Devin Brooker (hamstring strain) featuring for the majority of the opening round of the playoffs, the Suns sent the New Orleans Pelicans packing.
Booker picked up the injury in Game 2 of the first round but made a comeback in Game 6. In the 109-115 victory, the 25-year-old managed 13 points, three assists, and five rebounds in 32 minutes of court time. Considering he scored 31 points in Game 2, it wasn’t the best return.
Suns fans will be hoping he can get back to his old self quickly, but if he takes his time, the Mavs could upset the odds in this second-round NBA Western Conference series opener.
Before Game 6, the NBA fined Phoenix $25,000 for breaking the league’s injury reporting rules. The organization stated that the Suns had failed to report Booker’s status in an accurate and timely manner: Booker’s status changed from out to questionable to playing leading up to Game 6.
Doncic Is Back
The Mavs overcame their own injury crisis to see off the Utah Jazz in Round 1. Star guard Luka Doncic was out for the first three matchups of that set because of a calf strain. In the three games he played, the Serb averaged 29 points, shooting 46.9% from the field and 36.7% from beyond the arc.
…in one game gainst the Suns this season, Doncic got 28 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds.
Although Utah couldn’t contain Doncic, the Suns should have more effective options to keep the former EuroLeague MVP award winner at bay. Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and DeAndre Ayton’s presence in the paint should make it challenging for the Mavs main man to get to the rim.
Nevertheless, in one game against the Suns this season, Doncic got 28 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds. Therefore, as shutting him down looks impossible, containing him is the best option.
The Suns Have Strength in Depth
The Mavericks can’t come close to the amount of star quality Phoenix can put on the floor. Chris Paul bagging 33 points in Phoenix’s Game 6 win over New Orleans without a healthy Booker demonstrated how valuable having a deep squad is.
Yet Jalen Brunson pulled off a similar feat for Dallas in three games without Doncic by averaging 27.8 points per game over the series – including a 41-point mega haul in Game 2.
If Brunson can emulate those performances, the Mavs have a decent chance in this series. Yet the stats don’t look good: Dallas has only managed one win against Phoenix in the past five years. Moreover, the Suns have an average margin of victory of 7.7 points over Doncic and co. this season.
Before paying too much attention to this stat, be aware that the Suns secured that average with a healthy Booker and with Doncic missing two of the three meetings.
Therefore, expect Game 1 to be much closer.
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Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
