by Ben Perks
After the Orlando Magic surprised many by taking Paolo Banchero as the first overall pick in the NBA draft, Vegas oddsmakers made the former Duke player a preseason ROY favorite.
But although nobody questions Banchero’s potential, do other top contenders hold better betting value?
Get betting insights and the latest 2023 Rookie of Year award odds.
2023 Rookie of the Year Award Betting Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | +350 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | +420 |
| Chet Holmgren | +480 |
| Jaden Ivey | +650 |
| Keegan Murray | +1100 |
2022-23 Regular Season ROY Info
- NBA betting sites have selected number one pick Banchero as the preseason ROY favorite
- Last year’s number four pick, Scottie Barnes, won the ROY honors in 2022
- A panel of United States and Canadian sportswriters and broadcasters each cast first-, second-, and third-place votes (worth five points, three points, and one point, respectively) to decide the winner
- The winner is announced shortly after the end of the regular season at the end of April
Is Banchero a Rightful Favorite?
As has been the case the last few seasons, the top pick of the NBA draft is the preseason NBA Rookie of the Year award favorite. The former Duke Blue Devils forward now has the chance to return some smiles to Orlando Magic fans.
The former Duke Blue Devils forward now has the chance to return some smiles to Orlando Magic fans.
However, as the Magic already had Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner occupying frontcourt positions, he might struggle to get enough playing time to win ROY. So have Vegas oddsmakers got this one wrong? Maybe.
Of course, the 6-foot-10 forward has got the potential to earn his minutes next season, as he is one of the best players in this draft. He averaged 17.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 39 starts last year with Duke.
Yet as Orlando already has various shooters and a dominant ball-handler in Cole Anthony, it might be challenging for Banchero to break into the team.
Still, it seems that bookmakers firmly believe that after the Magic’s lackluster 22-60 season, head coach Jamahl Mosley will give the new signing plenty of chances to stake his claim on court.
Do Holmgren and Smith Have Better Betting Value?
In the race for NBA ROY, Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr. hold an advantage over Banchero: they perfectly fit their new teams.
As the Rockets traded Christian Wood (arguably their best player) to the Mavericks, their intention of making Smith Jr. a pivotal player is clear. So, as Smith Jr. will have all the necessary freedom on the court to better his stats last year (23.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 55% shooting, 40% 3-point), he represents better futures betting value than Banchero.
…Holmgren should answer the prayers of Oklahoma City and cement his place in the squad.
As for Holmgren, he’ll slot into a Thunder team that, although teeming with young talent, is lacking stars in his position. By putting up 14.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.7 BPG, 61% shooting, 39% from outside the arc, the number one recruit in 2021, Holmgren should answer the prayers of Oklahoma City and cement his place in the squad.
Another factor in Holmgren’s favor is the presence of incredible playmaker Josh Giddey, who will go all out to help the 19-year-old maximize his potential both under the rim and outside.
Consequently, the former Gonzaga player seems to have the best chance of winning the ROY award.
Previous NBA ROY Winners
| Year | Player | Nationality | Team | School/Prior Experience | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Scottie Barnes | United States | Toronto Raptors | Florida State Seminoles | 3 (2021) |
| 2021 | LaMelo Ball | United States | Charlotte Hornets | Illawarra Hawks (AUS) | 3 (2020) |
| 2020 | Ja Morant | United States | Memphis Grizzlies | Murray State | 2 (2019) |
| 2019 | Luka Doncic | Slovenia | Dallas Mavericks | Real Madrid (ESP) | 3 (2018) |
| 2018 | Ben Simmons | Australia | Philadelphia 76ers | LSU | 1 (2016) |
| 2017 | Malcolm Brogdon | United States | Milwaukee Bucks | Virginia | 36 (2016) |
| 2016 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Dominican Republic | Minnesota Timberwolves | Kentucky | 1 (2015) |
| 2015 | Andrew Wiggins | Canada | Minnesota Timberwolves | Kansas | 1 (2014) |
| 2014 | Michael Carter-Williams | United States | Philadelphia 76ers | Syracuse | 11 (2013) |
| 2013 | Damian Lillard | United States | Portland Trail Blazers | Weber State | 6 (2012) |
| 2012 | Kyrie Irving | United States | Cleveland Cavaliers | Duke | 1 (2011) |
| 2011 | Blake Griffin | United States | LA Clippers | Oklahoma | 1 (2009) |
Discover how to remove the vig (juice), and calculate implied win probability of your NBA bets by checking out our odds calculator page.
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
