by Ben Perks
Vegas oddsmakers have the Milwaukee Brewers as -170 favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road this Thursday.
On Wednesday, the Brewers got their eighth win in the last ten games (12-7, 8-4 road) against the Pirates (3-1). The National League Central leaders will be looking to inflict another defeat on a Pirates team (8-10, 4-5 home) that has lost three of its last four outings.
Will it be business as usual for Milwaukee, or will Pittsburgh get a much-needed victory against the odds? View the latest stats and betting lines for this MLB matchup.
Brewers @ Pirates: MLB Betting Info
- MLB betting sites have the Brewers at +1400 to win the World Series
- The Pirates are longshots to lift Commissioner’s Trophy at +40000
- Brewers player Freddy Peralta (0-1, 7.50) will pitch against Buccos left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86)
- The Brewers are -170 favorites on the moneyline against the Buccos, giving them a 62.96% expected win probability
- Weather forecasters predict a sunny day in Pittsburgh with a high temperature of 56 degrees and a northwest wind of 5-9 mph
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh: Likely Pitchers
Freddy Peralta (0-1, 7.50) is expected to start for the Brewers against left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86) – both will be playing after five days of rest.
| Freddy Peralta | vs. | Jose Quintana |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 7.50 | ERA | 3.86 |
| 4.96 | xERA | 5.70 |
| 1.75 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 2.00 | SO/W | 1.00 |
Peralta is coming off a no-decision last Friday against the Phillies on the road. He allowed one run and three hits in five innings with six strikeouts and two walks in that matchup.
Against the Pirates, Peralta is 2-1 lifetime and will take to the field with a 3.19 ERA in 14 games (five starts). He has a 2-1 record at PNC Park and a 2.70 ERA in eight games (three starts).
The Dominican will be making his third road start after getting no decisions and a 4.00 ERA in his first two. He is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two starts during the day while on the road.
Bryan Reynolds – activated from the COVID-19 IL on Wednesday – is 6 for 13 (.462) against Peralta with a double and triple. Ben Gamel is 3 for 6.
Like Peralta, Jose Quintana had a no-decision last Friday after giving up two runs on three hits in 4.2 innings to the Cubs on the road – he struck out three and walked.
The Colombian has been effective against the Brewers, boasting a 9-4 record and 2.78 ERA in 18 games (17 starts). He is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two starts at home when playing in the day this year.
Going 3 for 10 (.300), Hunter Renfroe has two home runs off Quintana. Kolten Wong is 1 for 12 (.083).
Wednesday’s Game
Both teams had to wait until the sixth inning to have a hit on Wednesday night, finishing with a total of five.
Tyrone Taylor managed a tiebreaking RBI single in the seventh inning to help the Brewers overcome a 1-0 deficit. Milwaukee only got four hits on a 40-degree night – Wong bagged the first with a one-out double in the sixth inning. Josh Hader also notched his MLB-leading 10th save in as many opportunities.
Reynolds’ sixth-inning infield single was the Pirates’ lone hit.
Pirates Capable of an Upset?
Although the Brewers are 5-0 against the Pirates this season and hold a 39-14 advantage in the series since the beginning of the 2019 season, it could be the Pirates’ time to shine.
As Quintana has a solid record against the Brewers and is coming up against Peralta, who is letting opponents hit .271 off him, the Buccos have a decent chance of beating the Brewers at home on Thursday.
Brewers vs. Pirates: Last Ten Games
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/27/22 | Pirates | Brewers | MIL, 3-1 |
| 4/26/22 | Pirates | Brewers | MIL, 12-8 |
| 4/20/22 | Brewers | Pirates | MIL, 4-2 |
| 4/19/22 | Brewers | Pirates | MIL, 5-2 |
| 4/18/22 | Brewers | Pirates | MIL, 6-1 |
| 8/15/21 | Pirates | Brewers | MIL, 2-1 |
| 8/14/21 (2) | Pirates | Brewers | MIL, 6-0 |
| 8/14/21 (1) | Pirates | Brewers | PIT, 14-4 |
| 8/4/21 | Brewers | Pirates | MIL, 4-2 |
| 8/3/21 | Brewers | Pirates | PIT, 8-5 |
View the latest betting lines for upcoming MLB games.
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
