by Ben Perks
The Baylor Bears aim to continue their winning streak when facing the Texas Longhorns at the Frank C. Erwin Jr. Center on February 28. Baylor needs to win twice this week to be the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. Because the Baylor Bears are without stars LJ Cryer and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, they are only a slight favorite on the moneyline.
Although the Bears won the last meeting between these two sides by 17, the odds at online sportsbooks suggest that it will be a much closer battle this time around. Expect Texas to go for revenge against this depleted Baylor team on Monday night.
Texas vs. Baylor Betting Insights
- Baylor has won 15 games against the spread this season
- Baylor has hit the over 16 out of 30 games this season
- Baylor and its opponents have scored more than 136 points in 19 of 30 games this season
- The average point total in Bears’ contests this year is 138.9
- Texas has covered the spread 12 times in 29 matchups
- The Longhorns have covered the spread twice when billed as underdogs by 1 point or more this year
- Games with Texas have totaled more than 136 points 10 times this season
Baylor Bears
After beating TCU, Oklahoma State, and Kansas, the Bears are on a three-game winning streak. Baylor is currently ranked seventh in offensive rebounds (36.7% rate). The Longhorns, however, occupy 235th in defensive rebounding and have allowed opponents to clean the glass 29.4% of the time. This is a worrying stat for the Longhorns, especially considering their rebounding threat Tre Mitchell will miss the game for personal reasons. Therefore, expect Baylor to get many second chances when attacking.
Baylor also holds a 3-point shooting edge over their opponents: the Bears hit 35.1% from the 3 as a team, whereas Texas lets opponents score 31.1% of their attempts. Yet keep in mind that the absence of Cryer could see the Bears’ long-range scoring game take a hit. Still, the Bears have Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer, and James Akinjo – all of which have shot over 100 3s each during this season.
Nevertheless, Baylor’s injury problems will give Texas hope of pulling off an upset.
Texas Longhorns
As Andrew Jones, Timmy Allen, and Marcus Carr average at least one steal per game, the Longhorns could run riot by turning over the Bears. However, Texas is susceptible to being turned over themselves (18.2%), and Baylor is also strong in this area (23.4%).
Although both teams are evenly matched in this department, Baylor is far more dangerous at long shooting. Texas shoots 32.6% beyond the 3-point arc, and Baylor is holding opponents to under 30% from downtown. Moreover, as Baylor is allowing the opposition to shoot around 49% from inside the arc, expect the Longhorns to concentrate on scoring from inside the arc. This approach would favor Texas, as the team has scored 52.5% of its points from 2-pointers this season.
View the latest odds for upcoming NCAAB games.
Ben is a sports journalist & part-time trader with a passion for finding +EV bets. Ben lives in Madrid, Spain where he enjoys the live poker scene, and sunshine where he covers UFC, MLB, NHL, NBA, as well as tennis betting.
